000 AXNT20 KNHC 010543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale winds are no longer expected for the Agadir area of Morocco. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 13N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 33W and 37W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 58W from 15N southward into Guyana, and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Barbados, the southern Windward Islands and over Trinidad and Tobago. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from just southwest of Jamaica southward through central Panama, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near Providencia and Andrea, and near the Panama coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 08N30W to 08N47W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the trough from 08N to 13N between the Guinea Bissau/Guinea coast and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the trough from 06N to 09N between 22W and 28W, and from 05N to 08N between 37W and 46W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough meanders northeastward from the Florida Straits across southern Florida into the western Atlantic. This feature is producing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of the Yucatan Channel and over southern Florida, including the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge stretching southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate the region. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident at the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge will prevail into the beginning of next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula are expected to become fresh to locally strong Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough reaches east-northeastward from an upper low at the Gulf of Honduras through eastern Cuba. Enhanced by these features, convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Cayman Islands, central and eastern Cuba, and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves section at the beginning for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen at the south- central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are present at the southwestern basin, and between the Cayman Islands/Jamaica and Cuba/Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to between fresh and strong Mon night into Tue. Fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin will gradually expand northward through Tue. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through midweek next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pronounced upper-level trough runs northward from eastern Cuba to beyond 31N at 70W. A surface trough reaches northeastward from 27N69W to a 1015 mb low southeast of Bermuda near 31N62W. Convergent southerly winds feeding toward the trough and low are interacting with the upper trough to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 28N between 62W and the central/southeast Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1035 mb Azores High across 31N33W to near the southeast Bahamas. Moderate to fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found south of the low near Bermuda, north of 27N between 55W and 63W. Otherwise, the ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between 38W and the Georgia- Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE to NE trades and seas at 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 19N between the Africa coast and 38W. For the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident from 08N to 19N/20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin, including near the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 35W, the surface trough/low near Bermuda will lift north of 31N on Sat. From tonight through the weekend, gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W, while light to gentle winds are anticipated elsewhere. South of 22N, winds will increase to between moderate and fresh for the first half of next week. $$ Forecaster Chan