000 AXNT20 KNHC 302240 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale warning for the Agadir area of Morocco. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 35W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W south of 15N into Suriname. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 13N between 53W to 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W between Jamaica and eastern Panama. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave in the Caribbean at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania 18N16W to 08N30W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 10N52W. In addition to the convection already described in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 09N between 23W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1016 mb high pressure is located off the coast of Louisiana near 28N92W. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in all areas. For the forecast, the surface ridging will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted over the south-central Caribbean, following the tropical wave south of Jamaica. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on the East Atlantic gale warning. A surface trough extends from 31N77W to the northern Bahamas. This is associated with a sharp upper trough reaching from New England to eastern Cuba. Divergent flow aloft east of the upper trough is supporting a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 120 nm east of the surface trough north of 28N, and from 22N to 27N between 62W and 72W. 1015 mb low pressure, the remnant of Cindy, is stationary near 30N64W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are noted from 60 to 90 nm southeast of the center, along with seas 6 to 7 ft seas. 1026 mb high pressure is evident near 29N36W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere n of 20N west of 35W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident elsewhere, except for strong NW winds off northwest Africa and light breezes south of the Cabo Verde Islands. $$ Christensen