700 AXNT20 KNHC 301715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 30 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the AGADIR Offshore Zone, from 30/1500 UTC to 01/0000 UTC. N to NE winds will reach Force 8 near Cape Ghir, with severe gusts. Seas are 8-11 ft, and may peak to 12 ft this evening and early tonight. For more information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast from Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31.5W from 02N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15-20 kt, due to fast 700 mb winds. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 28W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55.5W from 04N over Suriname to 14N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 54W to 60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 76W from 05N over Colombia to 19N just south of Cuba. It is moving westward around 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave in the Caribbean at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough exits the coast of Mauritania 19N16W, and continues to 08N30W then 08N43W where a brief segment of the ITCZ begins and continues to 10N52W. In addition to convection described in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 37W to 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1017 mb high pressure is located off the coast of Louisiana near 28N92W. A weak surface trough is in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas are analyzed in all areas. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Winds west of the Yucatan peninsula are expected to become fresh to strong Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades are in the lee of the tropical wave along 76W, with 6-8 ft seas in the fastest winds. These 6-8 ft seas are mainly in the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the far SW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong Mon and Mon night. Fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central waters will expand in coverage through Mon night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on an EAST ATLANTIC GALE WARNING. 1015 mb low pressure, the remnants of Cindy, is near 30N64W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N to 31N between 58W and 62W. S winds are moderate to fresh in this area as well. 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 30N36W. A weak surface trough is noted in the far W waters near the coast of Florida. Moderate anticyclonic flow is analyzed across the Atlantic Basin, except north of 22N and west of 28W, where NE winds are fresh to strong, and in the far west waters, where winds are light to gentle. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, peaking to 8 ft in the aforementioned area of fresh to strong winds. For the forecast west of 55W, A surface trough with weak low pressure along it is located SSE of Bermuda. The trough and low pressure will move north of 31N today. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. $$ Mahoney