000 AXNT20 KNHC 290546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 15N southward, and moving west around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 19W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 14N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 11N between 45W and 48W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from Puerto Rico southward to north-central Venezuela, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Isolated thunderstorms are present over eastern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward through 10N22W to near 09N30W. Scattered showers are present south of the trough from 04N to 10N between Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 19W. An ITCZ continues from 09N30W across 08N35W to 09N45W, then resumes southwestward from 08N40W to just north of the Suriname- French Guiana border near 07N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 140 nm north, and 350 nm south of the first ITCZ segment. Similar convection exist up to 140 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A diurnal surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1014 mb high at the north-central, and a 1016 mb high at the east- central Gulf continue to dominate much of the region. Moderate to fresh with locally strong easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the southwestern Gulf, including the central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate with locally fresh SE to S return flow and 3 to 4 ft seas exist at the west-central and northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the highs will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow west of 90W and light to gentle winds east of 90W. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as the diurnal trough develops each evening and moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest upper-level trough across the Cayman Islands and Jamaica is producing isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, just south of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. The Atlantic Ridge extending southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the eastern Atlantic to near 20N60W is providing trade-wind flow across much of the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Mainly gentle easterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh tonight into Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the south-central waters Thu night. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough reaches southward from a 1012 mb low at northern Florida to near the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are flaring up along the Florida east coast and across the Atlantic waters adjacent to it and farther east, north of 29N between 74W and 78W. Another surface trough south of Bermuda near 29N64W is causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N between 65W and 70W. Convergent southeasterly winds feeding toward this trough are coupling with divergent flow aloft to create scattered moderate convection farther southeast from 19N to 30N between 58W and 64W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Mainly gentle southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 19N between 65W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Farther east, moderate to fresh ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found north of 19N between 50W and 65W. At the eastern Atlantic, a 1021 mb high is dominating the area north of 20N between 25W and 50W with light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft seas are present north of 19N between the Africa coast and 25W. Across the tropical Atlantic, moderate with locally fresh NE to ESE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 07N to 19N between the Cabo Verde Islands and Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast, the surface trough south of Bermuda will move northward, with the possibility of a low pressure center developing along it. Winds will strengthen in the vicinity of the trough tonight before moving north of the area Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail east of 65W with light to gentle winds elsewhere. $$ Forecaster Chan