000 AXNT20 KNHC 281750 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, was relocated based on wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now near 43W, from 06N to 11N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present on both side of the axis between 40W and 49W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean, was relocated based on wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is now near 64W, S of 18N to inland Venezuela. Scattered showers are mainly east of the wave axis S of 15N between 58W and 65W. A broad area of showers with embedded thunderstorms, associated with this wave is affecting the Lesser Antilles, mainly south of Guadeloupe and the easter Caribbean. Moisture associated with this system will continue to affect the Lesser Antilles today, spreading over the US/UK Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong winds behind the wave axis south of 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coasta of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N23W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 07N42W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is off the coast of west Africa from 05N to 13N between 15W and 22W. This convective activity could be associated with the next tropical wave. Another area of scattered moderate convection is located from 06N to 11N between 27W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1015 mb is located just west of the Florida Keys and is providing mostly light to gentle variable wind E of 90W where seas are in the 1 to 2 ft range. West of 90W, gentle to moderate return flow is present along with seas to 3 ft. Otherwise, a surface trough is producing scattered showers over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail through the weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle winds over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean and is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles and SE basin. Please see the tropical wave section for more information. Scatterd showers and thunderstorms are also present across the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama due to the influence of the east Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure difference between surface ridging across the Bahamas and Cuba, and lower pressure in the southwest Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong winds off Colombia with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, moderate trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to fresh speeds tonight into Sun night. Fresh to strong winds will develop over the south-central waters Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere during the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of disturbed weather, associated with a surface trough, has formed about 400 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Upper-level winds are marginally conducive for some slow development of this system during the next few days while it moves generally northward at about 5 mph. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov. A weak trough of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy and located about 400 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, is producing disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to drift toward the west- northwest during the next couple of days, and redevelopment is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov The pressure gradient between subtropical ridging across the central Atlantic and the surface trough supports moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds between 44W and 68W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are between the Cape Verde Islands and the west coast of Africa. Seas in these regions are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds and seas to 5 ft are elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned weak trough of low pressure associated with the remnants of Cindy, will move northward with the possibility of low pressure developing along the trough. Elsewhere moderate SW winds across the northeast Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle speeds today. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ KRV