000 AXNT20 KNHC 271035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 30W, from 04N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is under the influence of Saharan dry air and dust and lacks significant convection. A tropical wave is just SE of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 59W, from 06N to 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 50W and 63W. A tropical wave is in the far western Caribbean crossing Honduras and Nicaragua into the E Pacific waters. The wave axis is near 87W, extends southward from 17N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection over the NW Caribbean waters has diminished to scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the W coast of Africa near 14N17W to 08N28W to 09N40W. The ITCZ continues from 09N40W to 13N47W to 12N53W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is off the coast of Africa from 05N to 10N between 11W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 10N between 19W and 28W, and from 03N to 08N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Dry air subsidence from the mid to upper levels are maintaining fair weather conditions basin-wide. At the surface, a weak surface ridge dominates across the region and provides gentle to locally moderate SE to S winds over the western half of the gulf. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, weak surface ridging will prevail through the upcoming weekend, supporting mainly gentle to moderate return flow W of 90W and light to gentle variable wind over the eastern half of the basin. Otherwise, fresh winds will pulse north and west of the Yucatan peninsula each night into Sat as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is across the region as the remnants of Cindy has weakened the Bermuda High. This is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds basin-wide with locally fresh winds off the coast of Colombia where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 3 to 4 ft. In the NW Caribbean, the passage of a tropical wave supports scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a tropical wave entering the E Caribbean later today, is already generating scattered showers and tstms over the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands. For the forecast, a robust tropical wave along 85W will completely move into the Eastern Pacific waters this morning. Showers and tstms associated with the wave have started to diminish in the Gulf of Honduras. A second tropical wave is starting to move across the Lesser Antilles and is generating scattered showers and tstms over the Windward Islands. Gentle to moderate trade winds in the central and eastern Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh speeds Wed night through Sun night as the wave move across this area. Winds may reach strong speeds Fri into Sat night as the wave move across the central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Cindy, is producing heavy showers and tstms south-southeast of Bermuda from 20N to 29N between 55W and 65W. A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles in enhancing the winds over the offshore waters S of 25N between 55W and 61W. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda and Azores Highs, which are providing moderate NE to E winds over the central waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic and 3 to 5 ft over the SW N Atlantic region. For the forecast W of 55W, the remnants of Cindy are forecast to move generally northward over the western Atlantic, passing near Bermuda on Thu. Moderate to fresh SE winds to the E of this elongated area of low pressure will lift N of the area Thu night. Moderate to fresh SW winds across the NE Florida offshore waters will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Wed morning as an approaching front weakens into a surface trough. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere. $$ Ramos