000 AXNT20 KNHC 252243 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cindy is centered near 21.9N 59.0W at 25/2100 UTC, or 320 nm NE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving NW at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Rough to very rough seas, with seas in excess of 12 ft extend up to 90 nm NE, 60 SE, and 30 NW quadrants of the center, with seas to 14 ft. Cindy continues to weaken as it moves NW. The low-level center of Cindy continues to be exposed to the W of the deep convection. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and Cindy is expected to degenerate into a trough of low pressure by Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by National Hurricane Center at web-site https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest T.S. Cindy Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A fast moving tropical wave is located along 43W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 43W and 53W. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft are noted near the northern end of the wave axis, particularly from 10N to 14N between 38W and 47W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 79W from 09N-18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 16N between 77W-85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 11N15W to 08N34W. The ITCZ continues from 08N34W to 08N42W, then resumes near 07N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N and E of 38W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 28N87W. A surface trough is moving westward across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers are noted over the SW Gulf on either side of the trough axis. Scattered moderate convection is noted across South Florida and the Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominate the Gulf waters with seas generally in the 2 to 4 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the northwest Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave analyzed in the area. Outside of the wave area, gentle to moderate trades are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas associated with the remnants of Bret will gradually diminish across the central and southwest Caribbean through tonight. Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across the Caribbean thereafter through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. A surface ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic to east- central Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active north of 23N and west of 75W off southeast Florida between the ridge and a frontal trough that extends from 31N79W to near Cape Canaveral. This convective activity is ahead of a mid to upper level trough over the eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms are developing over SE Florida and the Florida Keys where abundant moisture and instability persist. Farther east, a trough extends from weak 1019 mb low pressure centered near 31N62W to 26N63W. The Bermuda-Azores high, with a main 1028 mb high pressure located near 36N44W dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted south of 20N, and gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 20N, outside of the area around Tropical Storm Cindy. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Cindy will move to 23.2N 60.4W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 24.8N 61.9W Mon afternoon, and dissipate Tue morning. Elsewhere, a ridge of high pressure extends from Bermuda SW to the northern Bahamas. $$ ERA