000 AXNT20 KNHC 250559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 25/0300 UTC, is near 18.7N 55.7W. Cindy is moving NW, or 315 degrees, 15 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Wind speeds of 50 knots are: within 40 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 0 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet: within 105 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 90 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. Precipitation: numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 180 nm to 420 nm from the center in the NE quadrant. No hazards are affecting land areas. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of tropical wave. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within 240 nm to the west of the 33W/34W tropical wave from 10N to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 17N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 13N17W, to 08N31W. The ITCZ is along 07N35W 06N44W 06N52W. Precipitation: disorganized widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N southward between 40W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An inland NW-to-SE oriented surface trough extends from north central Guatemala, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, beyond 19N100W. A NE-to-SW oriented surface trough is along the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: numerous strong covers the areas that are from the SE part of the Guatemala surface trough to 20N between 90W and 95W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the area that is from 24N southward from 85W westward. A stationary front is passing through Florida from 30N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward from 90W eastward. A surface ridge passes through the NW Bahamas, to the lower Texas Gulf coast. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from 90W eastward, in the offshore waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, and to the south of Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet elsewhere. One exception is for sea heights of 3 feet off the coast of Mexico near 20N. Broad moderate or slower anticyclonic wind speeds cover the entire Gulf of Mexico. High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through mid week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnant of Bret is a 74W/75W surface trough, from SW Haiti southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 270 nm on either side of the surface trough. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet near the coasts of Haiti and Colombia, to 14 feet from 14N to 15N along 73W. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet elsewhere between Puerto Rico and 80W. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere from Puerto Rico eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the NW corner of the area, and from 3 feet to 4 feet in the SW corner of the area. Strong to near gale-force cyclonic winds are between 70W and 78W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are from 19N southward between 84W and 87W, to the north of the 85W tropical wave. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 80W westward. Moderate NE to E winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 70W eastward. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba. The monsoon trough is along 9N75W in Colombia, beyond NW Costa Rica. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 76W and 82W. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, is 0.79 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are active in the south-central Caribbean associated with the remnant trough of Bret, which dissipated earlier this afternoon. However, strong winds and very rough seas persist over the south central Caribbean, but will diminish through Sun as the remnant trough moves across the southwest Caribbean. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy is in the tropical Atlantic near 18.7N 55.7W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving NW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cindy will move well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 20.3N 57.4W by Sun morning, and will continue moving further north of the area through mid week while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow with a trough spans the area that is between the Bahamas and 90W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 76W and NW Cuba. A 1018 mb low pressure center is near 29N59W. One part of a surface trough extends from the 1018 mb low pressure center to 32N43W. A second part of a surface trough curves away from the 1018 mb low pressure center to 23N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N between 30W and 70W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from the line 31N23W 25N36W 24N50W southward, from T.S. Cindy eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet within 240 nm to the west of the 33W/34W tropical wave from 10N to 13N. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 14N to 20N between 20W and the Cabo Verde Islands. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Tropical Storm Cindy near 18.7N 55.7W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving NW at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cindy will move to 20.3N 57.4W Sun morning, 22.4N 59.3W Sun evening, 24.2N 60.7W Mon morning, 25.7N 61.5W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ mt/ec