000 AXNT20 KNHC 240558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 24 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 12.9N 68.1W. Bret is about 65 nm to the NE of Curacao. Bret is moving W, or 270 degrees, 16 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm-force winds are: within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet: within 105 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 15 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 15 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N to 25N between 60W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 12N to 14N between 66W and 68W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 11N to 16N between 60W and 70W. Bret is moving through the southern sections of the Caribbean Sea. The forecast shows that Bret will be dissipated in about the next 36 hours or so. Please, monitor the progress of Bret if you have interests in the ABC Islands. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/ MIATCMAT3.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm Cindy, at 24/0300 UTC, is near 13.9N 50.4W, or about 640 nm to the E of the Lesser Antilles. T.S. Cindy is moving WNW, or 295 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Tropical storm-force winds are within 50 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet: within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 75 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are reaching 16 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 165 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm in the N semicircle, and from 315 nm to 560 nm in the W semicircle. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 14N southward, moving westward 5 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 04N to 10N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 12N, to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 07N27W 05N38W 07N46W. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the southern half of Florida, toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. A NW-to-SE oriented inland surface trough extends from NW coastal Honduras, through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and northwestward in Mexico. Precipitation: numerous strong from El Salvador to the western sections of Honduras, to the eastern sections of Guatemala, to the southern sections of Belize. Another area of numerous strong covers the eastern half of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, and offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front extends from the Florida Panhandle beyond south central Louisiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal waters and in the coastal plains from the middle Texas Gulf coast to SW Louisiana. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving from the SE U.S.A. into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet to the east of the line that is from the offshore waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula to the Tampa Florida metropolitan area. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. An exception is for 5 feet off the coast of the Florida Big Bend, and in parts of the west central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower wind speeds are from 90W eastward. Strong winds are from 22N southward between 91W and 93W. Fresh wind speeds are elsewhere from 25N southward between 90W and 95W. Mostly moderate wind speeds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night from tonight through mid week as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico is producing some hazy conditions over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Bret that is about 150 nm to the north of the coast of Venezuela along 67W/68W. The monsoon trough passes through 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica. The tropical wave is along 81W/82W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 70W and 78W, in parts of Venezuela and Colombia. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the offshore waters of the southern part of Haiti. Isolated moderate to locally strong covers much of Cuba. The sea heights are ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N southward, with T.S. Bret. The sea heights that are covering the rest of the Caribbean Sea that is from 70W eastward are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet between 70W and 80W. An exception is for 9 feet in the offshore waters of the eastern half of Panama. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the NW corner. The wind speeds that are between 60W and 70W decrease in speed, from 16N northward, from strong to fresh to moderate. These are the wind speeds for the areas that are away from T.S. Bret. Fresh to moderate wind speeds cover much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. An exception is for some strong NE wind speeds from 11N to 14N between 75W and 82W. Tropical Storm Bret is near 12.9N 68.1W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Bret will move to 13.0N 70.6W Sat morning, 13.2N 74.1W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Farther east, Tropical Storm Cindy is over the tropical Atlantic near 13.9N 50.4W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Cindy will move to 15.2N 52.4W Sat morning, 17.1N 54.9W Sat evening, then northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.1N 57.5W Sun morning. Cindy will gradually weaken as it moves farther north of the Leeward Islands through mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cindy. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N northward from 70W westward. This precipitation is to the east of the stationary front that is in the SE U.S.A. A dissipating stationary front is along 31N33W, to 28N40W, to 29N50W, to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N54W. A cold front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 22N59W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 26N northward between 30W and 50W, with an upper level trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward between 30W and 60W. Strong winds are within 120 nm of the 1016 mb low pressure center in the NW quadrant. Fresh winds are elsewhere within 300 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Fresh winds are from 20N to 24N between 65W and 71W. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward from 50W westward. An exception is for sea heights to range from 6 feet to 7 feet from 27N northward between 50W and the 1016 mb low pressure center. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet in the remainder of the area that is from 50W eastward. Strong N winds are within 240 nm of the coast of Africa from 18N to 24N. Fresh winds are from 11N to 28N from 45W eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 50W eastward. Tropical Storm Cindy is in the tropical Atlantic near 13.9N 50.4W 1003 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving WNW at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Cindy will move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands near 19.1N 57.5W by Sun morning, then continue to 20.9N 59.6W Sun evening, 22.5N 61.5W Mon morning, and 23.7N 62.9W Mon evening. Cindy will weaken to a remnant low well north of the Leeward Islands by late Tue. Elsewhere, high pressure extending from the north-central Atlantic to the Bahamas will lift northward through early Sun ahead of T.S. Cindy. $$ mt/ec