000 AXNT20 KNHC 221035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bret is centered near 13.7N 56.6W at 22/0900 UTC or 170 nm E of Barbados moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Westerly shear continues across Bret, maintaining numerous moderate to scattered strong convection within 120 nm to the northeast of the low level center. A pair of altimeter satellite passes from earlier in the evening indicated a broad area of seas 12 ft or greater well to the north of the center of Bret, with maximum seas to 25 ft near the center. Bret is expected to continue to move west and pass over the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands late today or this evening, delivering torrential rainfall with the risk of flooding, strong winds, and dangerous waves along the coast. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. Newly formed Tropical Depression Four is centered near 10.9N 41.1W at 22/0900 UTC or 1210 nm E of the Lesser Antilles moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Easterly shear is maintaining scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 240 nm west of the partially exposed low level center. Combined seas are estimated to be around 9 ft. Seas will continue to build as Four is expected to intensify into a tropical storm later today as it continues westward. Four is forecast to eventually move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands late Sat into early Sun. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical was along 20W, from 02N to 14N, moving W at 5 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 07N between 12W and 17W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers and thunderstorms are evident from 14N to 16N between 65W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N25W to T.D. Four near 10.9N 41.1W. In addition the convection already described in the paragraphs above, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 07N between 27W and 32W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends from southwest Florida to the central Gulf to the upper Texas coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the Florida coast east of Panama City through the Big Bend area. Light breezes and slight seas are evident across the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure will move little through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Fri night as a trough develops each evening and moves offshore. A nearly stationary front along the northeast Gulf coast will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms to those waters through Fri. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to result in haze over sections of the far western Gulf through at least the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about T.S. Bret, and newly formed T.D. Four. Fresh to strong trade winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted across the south-central Caribbean. Low level convergence related to these trade winds is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast of Nicaragua, north of the monsoon trough. Fresh E to SE winds are also noted over the Gulf of Honduras, where combined seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Bret will move to 13.9N 58.8W this afternoon, 14.1N 61.8W Fri morning, 14.3N 65.2W Fri afternoon, 14.4N 68.7W Sat morning, 14.6N 72.2W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun morning. The remnant trough will continue westward to the western Caribbean into early next week accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds. Farther east, Four will move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands late Sat and Sun as a tropical storm. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about T.S. Bret and T.D. Four. Divergence aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. A broad but weak ridge extends across the waters north of 20N, supporting fresh southerly flow off northeast Florida, and fresh to strong E winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft. Outside of the tropical cyclone activity, moderate winds and seas persist south of 20N. For the forecast for waters west of 55W, T.D. Four will strengthen to a tropical storm this afternoon, then continue to move to the west-northwest through Sat night and northeast of the Leeward Islands near 17.6N 55.5W Sun morning. Four will change little in intensity as it reaches near 20.9N 60.7W on Mon. High pressure reaching from the north-central Atlantic to the central Bahamas will shift northward through early Sun ahead of Four. $$ Christensen