000 AXNT20 KNHC 220603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Bret, at 22/0600 UTC is near: 13.5N 55.8W, or about 465 km/251 nm to the east of Barbados. T.S. Bret is moving W, or 280 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. The sea heights that are reaching 12 feet or greater are within: 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 45 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The maximum sea heights are forecast to reach 22 feet. Tropical storm force winds are within: 100 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 40 nm of the center in the SE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SW quadrant; and within 80 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. 50 knot wind speeds are within 30 nm of the center in the NE quadrant; within 0 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and in the SW quadrant; and within 20 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Bret are issued under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Another website for information is: www.hurricanes.gov. Invest Area (AL93): A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 10.5N40W. Strong winds are within 250 nm of the center in the N quadrant. Fresh winds are within 500 nm of the center in the N quadrant. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 9 feet from 10N to 16N between 35W and 41W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The precipitation pattern continues to show signs of organization. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development. It is likely for a tropical depression to form during the next day or so. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward from 10 mph to 15 mph, through the central tropical Atlantic Ocean through the early part of the weekend. The chance for formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook, at www.hurricanes.gov, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical was along 19W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between Africa and the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Scattered to numerous strong is from 04N to 11N between 26W and 30W, on either side of the monsoon trough, and about 425 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 16N, and within 300 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 14N to 20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N, to 08N20W, and to 07N31W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. Other areas of precipitation are listed already near the 19W tropical wave. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front passes through SW Alabama, through southern Louisiana, becoming a warm front in east Texas. The warm front continues northwestward, beyond the Texas Panhandle. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 27N to 31N between 90W and 99W. The precipitation covers parts of the NW Gulf of Mexico, and inland areas of SW Louisiana, and parts of Texas. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers parts of the NE Gulf of Mexico, and inland areas of Florida between 82W and 85W. The sea heights are reaching: 1 foot in the Straits of Florida; 2 feet off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula; and from 3 feet to 4 feet elsewhere. Expect moderate to locally fresh southerly winds in the western Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure extending from southwest Florida to the upper Texas coast will move little through early next week. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. A nearly stationary front along the northeast Gulf coast will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms to those waters through Thu. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to result in haze over sections of the far western Gulf through at least the next couple of days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Bret. The GFS model for 250 mb shows a trough from the eastern Gulf of Mexico, that passes through the Yucatan Channel to Central America. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough in the same areas. Precipitation: scattered strong is within 120 nm of the coast of Nicaragua from 11N to 14N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from 09N77W to 80W in Cuba. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 22/0000 UTC, was: 0.45 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Strong E to NE winds are from 12N to 19N between 70W and 80W. Some near gale-force winds are from 12N to 15N between 70W and 76W. Fresh E to NE winds are from 11N to 20N between 60W and 70W. Some strong winds are from 13N to 19N between 60W and 67W. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate to fresh SE winds are from 15N northward from 80W westward. Some strong SE winds are from 17N to 19N within 90 nm of the coast in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower wind speeds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 9 feet from Jamaica and Hispaniola southward between 70W and 81W. The comparatively highest sea heights are off the coast of Colombia along 74W/75W. The sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 5 feet, except for 2 feet to the east of Grenada. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical Storm Bret is near 13.5N 55.2W 1000 mb at 11 PM EDT, moving W at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Bret will move to 13.7N 57.3W Thu morning, 14.0N 60.1W Thu evening, and 14.3N 63.4W Fri morning. Bret will move into the southeast Caribbean Fri, reaching 14.5N 67.0W Fri evening, 14.7N 70.5W Sat morning, and then dissipate Sat evening over the central Caribbean. The remnant trough will continue westward to the western Caribbean into early next week accompanied by fresh east to southeast winds. Low pressure that is currently over the eastern Atlantic may move to the northeast of the Leeward Islands this weekend as a possible tropical cyclone. Farther west, fresh to occasionally strong E to SE winds will persist in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through late Sat, briefly pulsing to near gale force Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about Tropical Storm Bret, and about Invest Area AL93. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 36N17W, through 31N20W, to 28N23W 28N41W, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near 31N63W. The surface ridge continues from the 31N63W 1022 mb high pressure center, to the Bahamas, and to the Straits of Florida. The sea heights are ranging from 2 feet to 5 feet from 21N northward. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet from the AL93 INVEST eastward. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the Atlantic Ocean to the north of the line 26N70W 21N53W 19N38W, and elsewhere from 38W eastward. The wind speeds and the sea heights that pertain to T.S. BRET, and to the AL93 INVEST, are listed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section. Broad high pressure ridging extending southwest across the area will continue to control the weather regime during the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds offshore NE Florida will diminish by early Fri. Elsewhere, the ridge will maintain mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds over the next several days, except for locally fresh offshore off Hispaniola and off NE Florida. Low pressure that is currently over the eastern Atlantic may move across the waters from 19N to 25N east of 70W early next week as a possible tropical cyclone. $$ mt/ec