166 AXNT20 KNHC 191716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Three is centered near 11.0N 40.3W at 19/1500 UTC or 1240 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 08N to 15N between 37W and 44W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the E semicircle of the depression center. On the forecast track, the system should be approaching the Lesser Antilles late this week. Some strengthening is forecast, and the depression is forecast to become a hurricane in a few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave SW of the Cabo Verde Islands extends along 27W from 03W to 15W, moving W at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 05N to 11N between 29W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 03N to 12N between 25W and 29W. Further development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form within the next few days while the system moves westward at 8 to 13 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low (30%) probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a medium (40%) probability over the next seven days. A tropical wave is just E of French Guiana with axis near 50W, from 02N to 15N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. A tropical wave is moving inland Colombia with axis near 74W, south of 13N. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N16W to 08N27W to 10N39W to 07N46W. No ITCZ is currently present. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves and Tropical Depression Three, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 12W and 21W. GULF OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between weak surface ridging extending from the SW N Atlantic waters to the central gulf and low pressure across the western basin is supporting moderate to fresh winds return flow and seas of 2 to 5 ft. Smoke due to agriculture fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula north and westward. Otherwise, mid to upper level diffluent flow continue to support heavy showers and scattered tstms along the coastal waters between Alabama and the Florida Big Bend. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Straits of Florida to the upper Texas coast will generally persist through the week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, locally fresh at times. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a Storm Warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development potential. This system may approach the NE Caribbean by the end of the week. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-10 ft range in the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is observed in portions of the western Caribbean from 10N to 18N between 80W to 86W. Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across the central Caribbean through early Thu. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras before sunrise today, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 80W through at least this evening. An area of low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu and may approach the NE Caribbean thereafter. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a Storm Warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development potential. In the far western Atlantic, a diffluent pattern aloft and a surface trough from 30N76W to the Treasure Coast of Florida is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 75W, including the northern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are within about 240 NM ahead of the trough. Otherwise high pressure dominates the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high near 32.5N47W. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow north of 20N, where seas are 3-6 ft. South of 20N, trade winds are moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas, except light to gentle winds S of 10N and W of 40W with 3-4 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge SW through the central Bahamas to the SE Gulf of Mexico, and will continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front off the SE US coast will linger and gradually dissipate through the early part of the week with locally fresh winds E of it tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas to around 70W through today. An area of low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through the end of the week. $$ Ramos