000 AXNT20 KNHC 190001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning Eastern Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 03N to 16N, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 09.6N34.1W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 32W and 40W. This activity is gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late Mon night and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high (90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a high (90%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave (with AL92) in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier today and currently has its axis near 20W extending from 04N to 16N, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 18W and 28W. Some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves westward at about 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 00N to 11N, moving W at 15-20 kt. There is no convection in the vicinity of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is moving across Venezuela with axis near 63W, south of 13N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm east of the wave and inland Venezuela. Former tropical wave moving across the NW Caribbean, Honduras and Nicaragua is being discussed in the E Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16.5N16.5W to 10N26W to 05N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 15N between 16W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure extends from the central Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and to the south central Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the gulf waters W of 87W, except for fresh winds along the Yucatan peninsula and NE Mexico adjacent waters. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Otherwise, mid to upper level diffluent flow continue to support scattered showers over the far eastern basin. For the forecast, surface ridging will generally persist through the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf through Thu night. A weak front may sink into the northern Gulf coastal waters by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds are ongoing elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the south-central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across the central Caribbean through early Wed. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras this evening, then moderate to fresh through Thu. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 80W through Mon evening. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development potential. High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 15N, anchored by a high center of 1026 mb centered near 32N47W. This is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the subtropical Atlantic waters, except light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center and fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of AL92. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in the vicinity of AL 92. In the far western Atlantic, a mid to upper level trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 72W, including the northern Bahamas. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any convection. For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge SW through the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel, and will continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front or trough may shift offshore N Florida and stall early in the week before dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas to 68W through tonight. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu. $$ Ramos