000 AXNT20 KNHC 182347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 19 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning Eastern Tropical Atlantic Low (AL92): The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 03N to 16N, and is moving W at around 15 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 09.6N34.1W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 14N between 32W and 40W. This activity is gradually becoming better organized and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week. Winds are forecast to reach 35 kt or greater by late Mon night and a gale warning has been issued. There is a high (90%) chance of tropical cyclone development through the next 48 hours, and a high (90%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave (with AL92) in the eastern Atlantic. A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier today and currently has its axis near 20W extending from 04N to 16N, and moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 18W and 28W. A tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 10N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Only isolated showers and are observed in the vicinity of the tropical wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 61W/62W, south of 12N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within 60 nm east of the wave N of 09N. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 84W/85W from 18N southward into the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 11N to 16N between 80W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16.5N16.5W to 10N26W to 05N45W. No ITCZ is currently present. In addition to the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 05N to 15N between 16W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds are noted west of the Yucatan peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the Atlantic through the Straits of Florida and to the south central Gulf will generally persist through the next several days. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period as a diurnal trough develops and moves offshore. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf today through Thu night. A weak front may sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the central and western Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Smoke due to agricultural fires over portions of Central America may be reducing visibilities in the NW Caribbean to the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades from the central Caribbean to Nicaragua through this afternoon, then again across the central Caribbean tonight through early Wed. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras before sunrise today, then moderate to fresh through at least Thu. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 78W through Mon. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu through Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a gale warning and associated area of low pressure (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic which has a high tropical cyclone development potential. High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 15N, anchored by a high center of 1026 mb centered near 32N47W. This is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the subtropical Atlantic waters, except light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center and fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of AL92. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range, except to 8 ft in the vicinity of AL 92. In the far western Atlantic, a mid to upper level trough is generating heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 24N and W of 72W, including the northern Bahamas. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any convection. For the forecast W of 55W, Bermuda high pressure extends a ridge SW through the central Bahamas to the Yucatan Channel, and will continue to dominate through mid-week. A weak cold front or trough may shift offshore N Florida and stall early in the week before dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will prevail the next several days, locally fresh offshore N Hispaniola and offshore N Florida. Scattered thunderstorms will continue from the NW Bahamas to 68W through tonight. A strong tropical wave, and possible tropical cyclone, will move across 55W and into the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu. $$ Ramos