000 AXNT20 KNHC 171757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92): A tropical wave extends along 27W, from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt, with a broad 1011 mb low just east of the wave axis 10N27W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 10N between 25W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The is a medium (50%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a high (70%) chance of development through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the tropical wave (AL92) in the eastern Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 03N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 55W from 02N to 10N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant convection is noted. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 12N southward, moving west at 20-25 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection, possibly enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N and west of 76W to the coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 1011 mb low near 10N27W to 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from 05N42W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N east of 18W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is analyzed in the W Gulf of Mexico. Weak ridging prevails across the basin. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds prevail, with seas of 3-5 ft.Smoke due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities in coastal waters from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front will sink into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the W Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on a tropical wave and the associated convection in the SW Caribbean. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over Panama and Northern Colombia supporting fresh to strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Seas are 8-12 ft in the central Caribbean as a result. Trades are moderate to fresh elsewhere in the basin, with seas of 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through today, then gradually spread westward to 82W and weaken through Sun night. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across SW portions to the west of 76W through Sun night. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again across the central Caribbean early Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending from 24N77W to NE of the area. A line of scattered moderate convection is moving off the coast of Florida, from Jensen Beach north to Daytona Beach. 1025 mb high pressure is centered just north of the area, and 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 28N28W. The unremarkable pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the ITCZ supports gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. S winds are moderate to fresh near 29N66W. Seas of 3-6 ft are analyzed across the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure will remain in place today before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh SW winds are expected north of 29N and west of 65W through this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected N of the Bahamas and W of 72W this evening through Sun. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. $$ Mahoney