000 AXNT20 KNHC 170831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest Area 92L: A tropical wave extends along 26W from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt, with a broad 1011 mb low along the wave near 10N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 20W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle portion of next week. The current Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a medium chance of development over the next 48 hours, and a high chance through the next seven days. Please refer to the latest outlook at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Invest 92L in the eastern Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W/39W from 023N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. No nearby significant convection is noted. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W/54W from French Guiana near 02N to 10N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No nearby significant convection is noted. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W/73W near the border of Colombia and Venezuela, from 12N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland, and is producing some scattered moderate convection over NW Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 08N30W to 05N42W. The ITCZ continues from 04N42W to 05N50W. In addition to the convection described with Invest 92L, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 42W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends just offshore and NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise the pattern is dominated by a surface ridge extending from the Straits of Florida to the central Texas coast. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin under the ridging, except fresh offshore the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the wake of the surface trough. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, locally 6 ft near the fresh winds, with 1-3 ft in the SW Florida coastal waters and the Straits of Florida. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to around 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure from the Straits of Florida to the central Texas coast will generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front may drop into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 9-12 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 15N between 75W and 84W associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through today, then gradually spreading westward and weaken through Sun night. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through tonight. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again across the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending from 31N77W to NE of the area. A line of thunderstorms is observed roughly 60 nm ahead of the trough axis, with a similar line of convection about 300 nm SE of the trough associated with a mid-level trough. Winds are moderate to fresh in the western Atlantic, locally strong N of 29N between 74W and 80W, with 5-8 ft seas. Otherwise, A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W dominates the weather pattern. Due to this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin, with mainly 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure centered near 31N49W extends a ridge WSW to the central Bahamas, and will remain in place through today before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 29N and west of 65W through this morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. $$ Lewitsky