000 AXNT20 KNHC 170353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W from 06N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N between 20W and 28W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is analyzed along the wave near 10N25W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a medium chance through the next seven days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W from 03N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the monsoon trough, is observed from 04N to 08N between 30W and 44W Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 51W from 02N to 10N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed near the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over central Venezuela, producing some scattered showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 05N41W. The ITCZ continues from 05N41W to 05N49W. All significant convection is described in the tropical waves section of this discussion. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends along the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise the pattern is dominated by a surface ridge extending from the Florida Straits to the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Winds are generally moderate from the S-SW across the majority of the basin, with fresh winds near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are generally 3-5 ft, with 1-3 ft in the coastal waters of the far eastern basin and Florida Straits. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to near 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extends weakly into the E Gulf along 24N-25N, and will generally persist through early next week. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. A weak front may drop into the far northern Gulf by mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and a 1008 mb low pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea. Strong winds are also observed in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 9-12 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 6-9 ft in the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed in the SW Caribbean from 06N to 12N between 73W and 81W associated with the eastern N Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then gradually spreading westward and weaken through Sun night. Winds are expected to pulse to near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sat night. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again across the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic, extending from 31N76W to 27N80W. A line of thunderstorms is observed roughly 60 nm ahead of the trough axis. Winds are moderate to fresh in the western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. Otherwise, A 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N52W dominates the weather pattern. Due to this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, 1024 mb high pressure centered near 30N54W extends a ridge WSW to the central Bahamas, and will remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 29N and west of 65W through Sat morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. $$ Flynn