000 AXNT20 KNHC 162226 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jun 17 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W from 06N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is from 07N to 12N between 20W and 26W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a medium chance through the next seven days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W from 04N to 11N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection, possibly enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is observed from 06N to 09N between 29W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 50W from 02N to 10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. The tropical wave is mainly inland over central Venezuela, producing some scattered showers. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 07N30W to 05N50W. All convection is described in the tropical waves section. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary extending from 29N84W to 29N89W is producing clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters. No other areas of showers are noted at this time. Elsewhere, the sensible weather is dominated by a surface ridge that extends all the way into the central Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge, except in the SW Gulf, where SE winds are moderate to fresh, and the NE Gulf, where WSW winds are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except in Florida Straits where seas are 1-3 ft in light to gentle winds. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico may be reducing visibilities to near 5 nm at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will generally persist through Mon. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period, becoming locally strong tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. CARIBBEAN SEA... A pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the lower pressure over Colombia is supporting easterly near gale-force winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea off the coast of Colombia. The strong to near-gale force winds extend from the coast of Colombia to 16N between 72W and 77W. Within the same area, seas are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 14N west of 79W, associated with the eastern N Pacific's monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through early Sat, then gradually spread westward and weaken through Sun night. Winds are expected to pulse to near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sat night. Trade winds will become fresh to strong again across the central Caribbean Mon through Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection is located north of 27N west of 75W and is associated with a surface trough just north of our waters. A high pressure of 1023 mb is centered at 29N53W. This high pressure is currently dominating the sensible weather in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Due this high pressure, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are analyzed across the basin and depicted well by the latest scatterometer passes. Seas across the basin are 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will remain in place through Sat before shifting slightly northward Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 30N and west of 65W through Sat morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, and locally fresh at times along northern Hispaniola. $$ KRV/AM/SS/CWL