000 AXNT20 KNHC 160907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W/20W from 05N to 14N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 08 to 12N, east of 22W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next 48 hours, and a medium probability through the next seven days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 02N to 12N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 08N between 28W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 02N to 11N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 07N between 42W and 50W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 63W from eastern Venezuela at 04N to 13N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak over water, with scattered thunderstorms observed over portions of Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 08N26W. The ITCZ continues from 08N26W to 07N30W, from 06N34W to 05N44W, and from 05N49W to the coast of French Guiana at 05N54W. Besides the significant convection described with the tropical waves above, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 11N between 22W and 27W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula from 24N89W to 18N93W is supporting locally fresh E-SE winds. A stationary boundary across the SE US is triggering thunderstorms in the coastal waters of the far NE Gulf. Elsewhere, a broad surface ridge stretching across Florida to the west-central Gulf of Mexico dominates the weather pattern. Moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge, locally fresh offshore S Texas and NE Mexico, with 3-5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits with 1-3 ft seas. Haze due to agricultural fires over Mexico is resulting in some reduction to visibilities at coastal sites from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period, locally strong tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for at least the next day or two. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave affecting the basin. A broad ridge associated with subtropical high pressure combined with low pressure over coastal northern Colombia is supporting a large area of fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with seas of 7-11 ft. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are pulsing near the Gulf of Honduras, with seas locally up to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are observed elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-6 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms have developed in the past few hours E of Nicaragua to 80W near the northern portion of a tropical wave which has moves inland over Central America. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through the next several days, spreading westward this weekend. Near gale-force winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. A deep layer trough that extends from near Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection off the E coast of Florida and from 25N to 31N between 75W and 80W, as well as from 25N to 31N between 60W and 70W. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 29N55W extends a ridge WSW to the northern Bahamas. This weather pattern supports mainly moderate to locally fresh winds across the Atlantic waters. Seas are 6-7 ft in E-SE swell in the Tropical N Atlantic, and mainly 3-5 ft elsewhere across the open Atlantic waters. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 30N and west of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, locally fresh at times offshore northern Hispaniola. $$ Lewitsky