000 AXNT20 KNHC 160350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jun 16 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 17W from 06N to 14N. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N, east of 25W. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook assigns a low probability of tropical cyclone development over the next seven days as the wave moves west across the tropical Atlantic. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 30W from 03N to 12N, moving west at around 10 kts. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W from 03N to 11N, moving west at around 10 kts. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N between 42W and 47W. A tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea extends along 61W from 05N to 13N. Associated convection is isolated and weak over water, with scattered thunderstorms observed over south central Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 17N16W to 06N32W. The ITCZ continues from 06N32W to 05N40W, and from 05N47W to 03N52W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge stretching across Florida to the west- central Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the weather pattern. Moderate anticyclonic flow is observed around the ridge with 3-5 ft seas. A surface trough along the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting locally fresh winds. Winds are light in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits with 1-3 ft seas. A stationary boundary across the SE US is triggering thunderstorms in the coastal waters of the far NE Gulf. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except locally fresh in the NW and W central Gulf Sun and Sun night. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next day or two. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad ridge associated with subtropical high pressure is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the majority of the basin, with strong winds in the south-central basin. Seas are 9-11 ft in the south-central Caribbean, surrounded by 6-9 ft seas in the remainder of the central and eastern basin. Fresh to strong winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. 4-6 ft seas are noted in the NW Caribbean and Caribbean Passages. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through the next several days, spreading westward this weekend. Near gale-force winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. A deep layer trough that extends from near Bermuda to the Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered moderate convection off the E coast of Florida and from 24N to 31N between 62W and 67W. Otherwise a 1023 mb surface high pressure centered near 28N57W dominates the pattern. The gradient between this high and lower pressure over the eastern U.S. is supporting moderate to fresh S- SW winds in the western subtropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and lower pressure in the deep tropics is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh winds S of 20N and W of 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the high pressure is dominating the weather pattern allowing moderate winds to prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft across the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, high pressure centered near 28N57W extends a ridge WSW to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are expected north of 30N and west of 65W through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next several days, locally fresh at times offshore northern Hispaniola. $$ Flynn