000 AXNT20 KNHC 151723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 27W from 03N to 12N, moving west around 5 to10 kts. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 24W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and diagnostics. The wave axis is now near 40W from 03N to 12N. No significant convection is associated with the wave. A western Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on satellite imagery and diagnostics. The wave axis is now near 59W from inland Guyana to 13N. Scattered moderate convection showers are present within 150 nm S of 10N. A Caribbean tropical wave has stalled and extends its axis near 80/81W from 05N and across Panama to 14N. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails S of 14N between 78W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 05N32W. The ITCZ continues westward from 05N32W to 05N39W, then resumes from 06N42W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between the west coast of Africa and 20W. Similar convection is noted within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 46W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge stretches westward from the west coast of Florida to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found at the south- central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate southerly to southeasterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas and 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge across the Gulf waters and low pressure over NE Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds across the W Gulf today. Fresh winds will pulse north of the Yucatan peninsula each night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf for the next day or two. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. An upper-level trough is reflecting a pressure trough at the surface over the Windward Passage continues to induce scattered showers over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 28N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to near-gale easterly winds associated with the east Pacific Monsoon trough offshore Panama and Costa Rica where seas are up to 6 ft. An area of strong winds is over the central Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 68W and 75W where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, over the eastern and central Caribbean fresh to strong winds and seas of 5 yo 7 ft seas prevail. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail south of Cuba and the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds are expected to pulse at nighttime in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia through Fri night. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves affecting the basin. A mid to upper level trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms northeast of the Bahamas mainly north of 25N between 63W and 72W. A pressure gradient between a ridge of 1023 mb centered near 28N55W and low pressure over the eastern U.S. supports fresh to strong S-SW winds north of 28N and W of 68W. No significant convection or seas are associated with these winds. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and the low pressure in the deep tropics is supporting a large area of moderate to fresh winds S of 20N and W of 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the high pressure is dominating the weather pattern allowing moderate winds to prevail with seas of 3 to 5 ft across the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds are expected north of 30N and west of 70W through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will generally prevail for the next few days. $$ CTM/KRV