000 AXNT20 KNHC 150554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 15 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 12N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 22W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is near this wave based on the latest analysis. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 60W from near Barbados southward into Guyana, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present over central Guyana, and near Trinidad and Tobago. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 14N southward across Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring offshore Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua in the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal border, then curves southwestward across 10N21W to near 07N29W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 18W. An ITCZ continues westward from 07N29W to 06N39W, then from 06N44W to 07N56W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 40 nm along either side of the first ITCZ segment. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 110 nm north of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms over northern Colombia and near the Panama-Colombia border. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over northern Florida and Gulf waters near the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend area. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge stretching westward from central Florida to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found at the south-central Gulf, north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate southerly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over northeastern Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds across the western Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected north and northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may continue to produce hazy skies over the southwestern Gulf for the next day or two. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the northwestern basin continues to induce isolated thunderstorms over eastern Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the basin. A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N58W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the basin, except for monsoonal winds near Panama and Costa Rica. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimeter data reveal strong to near-gale easterly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Fresh to strong ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist south of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Gentle monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in trade-wind swell are found offshore Panama and Costa Rica. Mainly fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between the 1022 mb high and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong E trades across most of the central Caribbean through Mon. Near gale-force winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia each night to early morning hours through Fri night, as the high strengthens more. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An outflow boundary is producing scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms over northeastern Florida and nearby Atlantic waters. An upper-level trough over the western Atlantic continues to spark isolated thunderstorms from the southeast Bahamas northeastward to near 25N68W. A dissipating stationary front stretches southwestward from east of the Azores across 31N28W to 25N35W, then continues as a surface trough to 22N41W. Widely scattered showers are present up to 40 nm along either side of these features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are impacting waters east of Florida north of 28N between 65W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are found from 19N to 25N between 52W and the southeast Bahamas/Greater Antilles. Otherwise, the large 1022 mb high and its related ridge are supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mix northerly/southerly swells north of 19N/20N between 20W and the northwest/central Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 20W. Farther south, gentle to moderate N to NNE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 35W. To the west, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 5 to 7 ft seas are seen from 06N to 19N/20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the 1022 mb high will sustain gentle to moderate winds during the next several days south of 29N. North of 29N and west of 65W, fresh to strong SW winds are expected through Fri night. $$ Forecaster Chan