000 AXNT20 KNHC 141726 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jun 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 23W from 03N to 12N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave north of 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 40W from 03N to 11N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 57W from the NW coast of Suriname to 13N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from the coast of South America to 11N between 53W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated farther west with its axis along 78W extending from the East Pacific to Panama to 14N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring west of the wave offshore Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends SW to 08N28W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N28W to 06N38W where it is intercepted by a tropical wave. The ITCZ continues from 06N42W to 05N53W. Very little convection is noted aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge stretching westward from the central Atlantic to the west-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Moderate winds are noted across the basin, with S-SW winds in the eastern Gulf and S-SE winds in the western Gulf. Seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Thu. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A broad Atlantic ridge associated with a 1022 mb high centered near 26N57W continues to support a trade-wind regime across the entire basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Fresh to strong E winds were noted in a recent scatterometer pass, where seas are 7 to 9 ft, over the south-central basin just north of Colombia, between 70W and 80W. Fresh winds are also noted within the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central Caribbean through Sun. Near gale-force winds may occur in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia Thu night through Fri night as the Atlantic high pressure strengthens some. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. An Atlantic ridge extends westward from a 1022 mb high centered near 26N57W to southern Florida and supports gentle to moderate flow over most of the Atlantic basin north of 20N. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft east of 70W and 2 to 4 ft west of 70W. To the east, a very weak stationary front extends from 31N28W to 25N38W. No significant wind or precipitation is associated with this boundary. South of 20N and west of 37W, moderate to fresh trade winds were noted in a scatterometer pass from this morning, mostly likely due to the gradient between the lower pressures associated with the tropical waves, and the central Atlantic high pressure. Seas range from 6 to 8 ft in this region. For the forecast W of 55W, little change of this weather pattern is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW waters by Thu night. As a result, expect fresh to strong S to SW winds and seas to 8 ft over the N waters, mainly N of 29N and W of 70W. $$ Mora