000 AXNT20 KNHC 131802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was added to the map analysis at 13/1200 UTC. The tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 11N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The position for this tropical wave is based on satellite imagery and the Tropical Wave Diagnostics. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave. The Atlantic Ocean tropical wave that was along 42W, at 13/0600 UTC, was eliminated from the analysis, because it was determined to have dissipated. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave was added along 52W/53W, from 13N southward. This position is based on satellite imagery and the Tropical Wave Diagnostics. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/68W, from 13N southward into Venezuela, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N southward between 60W and 74W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 13N southward through Panama and into the Pacific Ocean, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: the monsoon trough is along 10N/11N between 73W in Colombia, beyond NW Costa Rica. Scattered to numerous strong is from land to 11N between 80W and Panama/Costa Rica. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the south of the line that runs from 12N83W to 10N76W. The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows an inverted trough that covers parts of the western and southwestern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of the Republic of The Gambia, to 06N29W. The ITCZ continues from 06N29W, to 05N33W 04N42W 03N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 32W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 12N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough covers the areas that are from 27N southward. A surface trough is in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from northern Florida into SE Louisiana. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the NE Gulf waters, and in the SE Gulf waters. The surface pressure gradient is weak elsewhere. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds in the NW corner and in the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 4 feet in the coastal waters of the middle Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet elsewhere in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SW quadrant, and in the western half of the part of the Gulf that is from 90W eastward. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf waters and low pressure over Texas and NE Mexico will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through Thu. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also expected near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the forecast period. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 26N64W, to NW Cuba/in the Straits of Florida, and then toward the Gulf of Honduras. Rainshowers accompany the 67W/68W tropical wave, in the SE part of the area. Other rainshowers cover the rest of the area that is from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central sections, off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh ENE-to-ESE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are in the north central sections, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly moderate E-to-SE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, cover the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the central Caribbean this week. Winds may reach strong to near gale-force across the south- central Caribbean Thu night into Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, is showing that cyclonic wind flow with a trough is covering parts of the Atlantic Ocean that includes the Bahamas, parts of Florida, parts of the NE Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the Caribbean Sea, from 16N northward between 70W and 90W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 28N northward between 66W and 71W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 25N to 28N between 76W and 79W in the NW Bahamas. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate, are in the remainder of the area that covers from 20N northward from 65W westward. A cold front passes through 31N33W, to 27N40W 25N48W 26N54W. A warm front continues from 26N54W, beyond 31N58W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 26N northward between 40W and 65W. A surface trough is along 31N29W 24N38W 21N45W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the trough. A 1023 mb high pressure center is near 29N53W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 33N19W. An Atlantic Ocean surface ridge passes through 26N64W, to NW Cuba/in the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet are from 27N northward from 70W westward. Similar conditions, with E to SE winds, are from 19N to 24N between 50W and the Greater Antilles. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 20N northward from the Bahamas eastward. Moderate to fresh NNE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W, near the Cabo Verde Islands. Gentle to moderate winds, with some fresh NE to E trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are from 05N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet in southerly swell, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic extends a ridge across the forecast waters producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 22N and moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 22N. Little change of this weather pattern is expected this week. A cold front is forecast to clip the NW waters Wed night into Thu. Fresh to strong winds and seas building to 8 ft are expected on either side of the front. $$ MT/GR