000 AXNT20 KNHC 122314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 39W, from 01N to 12N, moving westward from 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave from 03N to 12N between 35W and 45W. A tropical wave is just SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 60W, from 13N southward into Guyana, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 54W and 64W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 80W, from 13N southward into Panama and Colombia offshore waters, moving westward about 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is in the Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters just W of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N17W SW to 08N20W to 06N25W. The ITCZ begins near 06N25W and continues along 06N38W to 03N46W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 12W and 24W, and from 05N to 09N between 27W and 37W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure along central Texas to produce moderate to fresh SE winds across the coastal waters of southern Texas and NE Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are also along the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to the presence of a surface trough inland. Moderate SW winds are along the Florida Panhandle coast while light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, as a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by mid-week, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will continue to produce hazy skies over the SW Gulf through at least mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure just E and SE of Bermuda extends a ridge axis SSW into the northern half of the Caribbean. The pressure difference between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the monsoon trough and a tropical wave moving across SW Caribbean waters is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the E and NW basin, and fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean waters. The strongest winds are in the south-central basin, especifically, the Gulf of Venezuela and NW Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the western and eastern basin, and 7 to 9 ft in the central Caribbean where the strongest winds are occuring. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia low will tighten this week. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For information about the tropical Atlantic, see the tropical waves section above. Except for the NE Florida offshore waters, the remainder subtropical Atlantic remains under the influence of both the Bermuda and Azores High, which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds, except for moderate to fresh E winds S of 22N between the Dominican Republic and 50W. Also, moderate to fresh S to SW winds are over the NE and central Florida offshore waters ahead of a frontal boundary approaching from the NW. Seas are between 3 to 6 ft region-wise. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the central Atlantic westward to the central Bahamas through Tue. The associated gradient will maintain gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the western Atlantic through Tue. A cold front will become stationary over the southeastern U.S. through mid-week. Ahead of it, S to SW moderate to fresh winds will develop into early Fri across the waters N of 27N. Another cold front will move into the southeastern U.S. late Sat night preceded by moderate to fresh SW winds. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish some by late tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Tue afternoon and evening. $$ Ramos