000 AXNT20 KNHC 121900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W/38W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 250 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 200 nm to the west of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 13N southward into Guyana, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 280 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 13N southward into Panama and Colombia, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 14N20W and 07N28W. The ITCZ continues from 07N28W, to 07N52W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 600 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from the southern Bahamas to the coast of Louisiana. Weak surface low pressure covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The surface pressure gradient currently is flat and weak. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow spans the area. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 26N southward. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the SE corner, and in the far SW corner. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. The wind speeds are light and gentle. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north of the line, from the middle Texas Gulf coast into the central Gulf, into the SE corner. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are between the Bahamas and Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 86W, including in Florida, and from the Bahamas to NW Cuba and into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet off the middle Texas Gulf coast. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet from the central Gulf to the north of the NE Yucatan Peninsula, toward the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and to the coast of Louisiana. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. Gentle southerly winds are in the north central and in the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate, with locally fresh ENE to SE winds are in the remainder of the area. A broad and weak high pressure ridge extending from the Atlantic westward into the Gulf is combining with low pressure over NW Texas to produce moderate SE winds across the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. As a frontal boundary sinks farther south over Texas by midweek, winds will gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf Tue through early Thu. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. It is possible that smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico may be producing some hazy skies in the SW Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb and for 700 mb shows that an inverted trough is covering the areas that are from Honduras to Nicaragua, and the waters that reach 80W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the areas of the cyclonic wind flow that is accompanying the inverted trough. A surface ridge is along 23N, from 70W in the Atlantic Ocean beyond NW Cuba. Fresh with locally strong ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central sections to the north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the north central and eastern sections, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the remainder of the area. The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic Ocean, and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia, will tighten this week. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds significantly expanding in areal coverage across the central Caribbean Sea through the week. The winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are between the Bahamas and Florida and the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is between 70W and 86W, including in Florida, and from the Bahamas to NW Cuba and into the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front passes through 31N42W to 29N52W, and to 31N63W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are to the north of the line 22N70W 25N60W, 26N40W, beyond 31N37W. A surface trough is along 31N35W 26N40W 20N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that is near 32N23W, to 24N30W 20N40W 17N50W. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 26N57W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 23N northward. Moderate to fresh NNE to ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 13N to 23N from 30W eastward, and from 07N to 23N between 30W and the southern Bahamas. Light to gentle SE and monsoonal winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet in southerly swell, cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is passing through the Canary Islands. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. High pressure centered over the central Atlantic Ocean extends a ridge westward to the central Bahamas. This pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic today. As a cold front approaches the U.S. east coast, S to SW moderate to fresh winds will develop tonight into early Fri across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to diminish significantly by tonight. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola this afternoon and evening as well as Tue afternoon and evening. $$ mt/ja