000 AXNT20 KNHC 120556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jun 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 11N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 34W and 36W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 12N southward into Suriname, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 53W and Trinidad/Tobago. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from 13N southward into Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over northern and central Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast just north of Dakar and extends southwestward through 10N23W to 08N27W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 04N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 16W, and farther west from 04N to 08N between 20W and 25W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N27W to 06N34W, then from 05N37W across 05N45W to 07N53W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 150 nm north of the second ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing isolated thunderstorms at the southwestern Caribbean Sea. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is causing isolated thunderstorms at the south-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad but modest 1011 mb high at the north-central Gulf continues to dominate the region. Gentle southerly winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the north-central and eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a frontal boundary is expected to sink farther south across Texas Tue through early Thu, causing winds at the western Gulf to gradually increase to fresh and expand to the central Gulf. Meanwhile, winds will become moderate to locally fresh in the eastern Gulf by Tue night into Wed. Smoke from agricultural fires in Mexico will produce hazy skies across the southwestern Gulf tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface ridge extends westward from a 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic to the northwestern basin. Convergent southeasterly winds south of the ridge axis are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over western Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted across the north-central and eastern basin, and at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressure at northern Colombia will tighten this week. This should cause trade winds to become fresh to strong while significantly expanding across the central Caribbean tonight through most of the upcoming week. Winds will pulse to strong in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds continue to couple with modest divergent winds aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central Bahamas northeastward to near 28N69W. A stationary front south of Bermuda is producing widely scattered showers north of 28N between 60W and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are present west of 70W from the Bahamas northward to beyond 31N. Otherwise, a broad Atlantic Ridge related to a 1021 mb high near 26N56W is supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between the Africa coast and Florida-Georgia coast. To the south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are present from 13N to 23N between the central Africa coast and 30W, and also from 07N to 23N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southeasterly and monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic Ridge will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic through Mon. As a cold front approaches the U.S. East Coast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop Mon night through Thu across the waters N of 27N. Active weather affecting portion of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, is expected to shift northwest tonight and diminish significantly by Mon night. Winds will pulse to strong north of Hispaniola Mon and Tue afternoon and evenings. By Thu, fresh winds will increase in coverage north of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ Forecaster Chan