000 AXNT20 KNHC 110556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas: The deep upper-level trough is moving eastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico and northern Florida into the western Atlantic. This allows divergent upper-level flow east of the trough axis to gradually shift away from Cuba and the Bahamas. Meanwhile, latest water vapor satellite imagery also reveals decreasing moisture at the low to mid levels across Cuba and the Bahamas. As a result, conditions are expected to improve across Cuba tonight, and for the Bahamas on Sun. Residual moisture and modest convergent southerly surface winds can still cause widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for both locations through Sun. Please refer to the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28W from 10N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers are noted from 05N to 08N between 26W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 10N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 46W and 48W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 11N southward through northern Venezuela and eastern Colombia, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over southern Venezuela and east-central Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Senegal coast near Dakar and continues southwestward across 10N22W to 05N29W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 21W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N29W across 03N37W to 04N46W, then northwestward from 05N49W to near 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is present near and up to 180 nm north of both ITCZ segments. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An outflow boundary across southeastern Texas, southern Louisiana and Mississippi is causing scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms near the Texas-Louisiana border, New Orleans and adjacent Gulf waters. Otherwise, a modest 1010 mb high over the north-central Gulf is dominating much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft are evident across the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the Gulf will maintain light to gentle winds across most of the Gulf, except moderate winds in the western Gulf. Early next week, a low pressure along a frontal boundary over Texas will bring moderate to locally fresh return flow over the western Gulf. By the middle of next week, fresh southerly winds should spread to the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall in Cuba. An Atlantic Ridge extends westward from a large dome of 1021 mb high at the central Atlantic to just west of Jamaica. Convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the southwestern basin northward across the Cayman Islands to eastern and central Cuba. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the north-central and eastern basin. Light to gentle with locally moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure at northern Colombia will maintain fresh to locally strong winds in the south central basin through Sun. Moderate to fresh winds can be expected over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun. Easterly trade winds will increase to between fresh and strong while significantly expanding northward across the central basin Sun night through late next week. Locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras during the afternoon and evening hours Mon through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas. A stationary front curves westward from southwest of Bermuda across 31N69W to near the Florida/Georgia border. Convergent southerly winds south of this boundary are coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over eastern Florida and nearby Atlantic waters, and also over the central Bahamas. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found farther northeast, north of 25N between 60W and 73W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist south and southeast of the stationary front north of 24N between 55W and 75W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 19N between the Africa coast and Georgia- Florida coast, including the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate NNE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist near the Cabo Verde Islands from 14N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 27W, and farther west from 05N to 19N between 27W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, as the stationary front weakens, the pressure gradient between this front and high pressure in the central Atlantic is going to relax. This will allow gentle to moderate winds across the western Atlantic to persist tonight through Mon. Afterward, moderate to locally fresh winds are expected Mon night through midweek. Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue over portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, through Sun. By the middle of next week, SW winds could increase a bit north of 29N as a frontal boundary lingers near the southeast U.S. coast. $$ Forecaster Chan