000 AXNT20 KNHC 101136 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 10 2023...Corrected Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. ...Corrected Header and Updated Special Feature... Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and the Bahamas: A deep upper-level trough is over Florida and the NW Caribbean Sea. Divergent SW flow east of the trough axis is transporting enhanced moisture northward from the deep tropics, creating an atmospheric river over Cuba and the Bahamas. Together with convergent southerly winds at the surface, sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are flaring up over Cuba and the Bahamas. Over the past 24 to 48 hours, Las Mercedes in Granma, Cuba reported up to 14 inches (360 mm) of rainfall. Earlier reports show 24-hour rainfall amounts ranging from 8-12 inches (200-300 mm) elsewhere in Granma, Santiago de Cuba, and Camaguey where life-threatening flooding has been reported. In the Bahamas, 8 inches (200 mm) was reported on Exuma and 4 inches (100 mm) was reported on Long Island over the past 24 to 48 hours. Additional rainfall of 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) are possible over the next 24 hours. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding and mudslides, especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Conditions are forecast to improve in Cuba by tonight, but heavy rain is still likely through Sun for portions of the Bahamas. Please refer to the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 19W and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 13N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered showers are present within 50 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W from 13N southward into eastern Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over southern Venezuela. Another Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 13N southward across Panama into the Pacific, and moving at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are found in the Caribbean waters adjacent to Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 13N16W then continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 04N31W to 04N40W, then continues W of the ITCZ near 04N44W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N and E of 33W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest 1011 mb high over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to dominate the entire Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE to S winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail over the western and southern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will maintain light to gentle winds through tonight. Low pressure will develop along a frontal boundary over Texas today which will bring moderate to locally fresh return flow over the western Gulf through Tue. By the middle of next week, the area of fresh southerly winds could expand over the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall for Cuba. Due to the reasoning mentioned in the Special Features section, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are seen near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the central and eastern basin. Mainly gentle E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and the Colombia low will maintain fresh to locally strong winds in the south central Caribbean this weekend. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun. Easterly trade winds will increase fresh to strong across the south- central Caribbean by Sun night through midweek. Locally strong winds can be expected in the Gulf of Honduras by early next week. Enhanced thunderstorms will continue between eastern Cuba and Jamaica through Sun morning, due to the influences of an upper- level trough just NW of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for information about Excessive Rainfall for the Bahamas. A surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off northeastern Florida. A stationary front curves westward from west of Bermuda across 31N79W to 30N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident north of 27N between 76W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Convergent southwesterly winds southeast of the front are producing similar conditions southwest of Bermuda north of 23N between 64W and 77W. At the central Atlantic, two surface troughs are generating widely scattered showers north of 19N between 29W and 37W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate east of the stationary front north of 28N between 64W and 75W. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen farther west from the Bahamas northward between 75W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Light to gentle winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 60W. To the south, light to gentle NNE to NE trades and 3 to 5 ft seas exist from 07N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 45W. Farther west, gentle to moderate ENE to E trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found from the Equator to 19N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure extending from the central Atlantic is creating a tight pressure gradient with low pressure off the SE US coast. This will maintain fresh to strong SW winds over the SW Atlantic, in between the Bahamas and Bermuda, through this afternoon. As the low pressure off the SE US coast weakens, gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the area tonight through early next week. Enhanced thunderstorms will continue over portions of the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas, through Sun morning. $$ AReinhart/Hagen