000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Cuba and in the Bahamas: Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper level jet stream that is just to the northwest of this area, will increase the potential for heavy rainshowers with thunder. Expect the greatest amounts of rain from this afternoon through Sat afternoon, in parts of eastern and central Cuba and in the central Bahamas. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Please, read the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. Locally heavy rain has been reported in central and eastern Cuba. A maximum rainfall amount was for about 4 inches (108.1 mm) in Jiquima, Holguin during the last 24 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W/31W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is within 210 nm to the east of the tropical wave from the ITCZ to 08N, and within 210 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 02N to 07N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 05N to 08N between 51W and 56W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 13N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 110 nm to 260 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 02N to 06N, in southern Venezuela. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N southward between 77W and 86W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N, to 08N17W. The ITCZ continues from 08N17W, to 06N20W, 06N34W, 04N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 08N between 09W and 19W, and from 02N to 10N between 35W and 48W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern is in the Gulf waters. Expect mainly light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 2 feet. A weak surface trough is in the north central Gulf of Mexico, with no nearby significant deep convective precipitation. Rainshowers are possible throughout the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, in association with broad multilevel cyclonic wind flow. High pressure generally will prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf over the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the heavy rainfall that is forecast to affect Cuba through Saturday afternoon. An 80W/81W tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 17N southward between 77W and 86W, in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and in the eastern parts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong covers the areas that are from the western shores of Jamaica to SE Cuba. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N to 27N between 68W and 80W. This precipitation is on the eastern edge of multilevel cyclonic wind flow, that mostly is in the Gulf of Mexico, but that is reaching parts of the NW Caribbean Sea also. Fresh to strong trade winds are from 15N southward between 69W and 73W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere between Hispaniola and northern Colombia/NW Venezuela. Light to gentle E to SE winds are in the NW Caribbean Sea. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the central and eastern sections, and they range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean. Weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Thu, increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central portions through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. A return to a more typical easterly trade wind regime is expected early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the heavy rainfall that is forecast to affect the Bahamas through Saturday afternoon. A cold front passes through 31N44W to 27N59W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong are to the northwest of the line that runs through 31N44W to 22N70W. A surface trough is along 31N40W 20N50W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. A cold front curves through 31N12W, to 23N20W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 21N33W, to 14N43W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N northward from 43W eastward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is on top of the Cabo Verde Islands. A second 1018 mb high pressure center is near 24N61W. The winds that are to the east of 31N12W-to-14N43W cold front north of 27N and east of 20W are SW fresh to locally strong with seas of 6-8 ft. Similar wind speeds are between the Canary Islands. The wind speeds are moderate or slower, with sea heights generally in the range from 4 feet to 6 feet, in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. High pressure will build westward across the forecast waters through late Fri. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W though Fri. Atlantic high pressure will then drift NE over the upcoming weekend, leading to a decrease in winds and seas across the area waters. $$ MT/al