000 AXNT20 KNHC 061741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist southerly mid-level flow combined with enhanced rising air motion due to a strong upper-level jet positioned just northwest of this area may lead to the potential for heavy rain and strong thunderstorms. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur from Wed afternoon through Sat afternoon, especially across portions of eastern and central Cuba, the central Bahamas, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. These rains could cause flooding, especially over mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please see the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. Developing gale-force winds for the Meteo-France marine zones in the eastern part of Irving: The Meteo-France forecast consists of developing gale-force winds in the marine zones in the eastern part of Irving from 06/1800 UTC until 07/0300 UTC. Please visit the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/ bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230606092016055965 for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has been analyzed near 20W, from 14N southward. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 04N-08N between 15W-18W. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 41W, from 13N southward, moving westward around 15 knots. Currently, no deep convection is associated with this tropical wave. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 63W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Currently, no deep convection is associated with this tropical wave. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 75W, from 14N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Currently, no deep convection is associated with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 02N39W. It resumes from 02N43W to 04N52W along the coast of Brazil. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted north of 01N east of 15W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure pattern this morning is forcing only light to gentle winds with seas 1-2 ft over the entire Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 25N west of 88W in association with an upper-level trough over Louisiana. For the forecast, high pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Feature above for heavy rainfall to affect the NW Caribbean Wed night through Fri afternoon. Low pressure associated with a cold front just north of the Bahamas is contributing toward a flat pressure gradient across the Caribbean today. As a result, E to SE trades are only gentle to moderate and seas 3-5 ft in the E Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 14N-20N between 80W- 85W. This is likely being forced by upper-level divergence. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic today, with occasional fresh pulses across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure will build north of the area through early Fri, increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features above for heavy rainfall to affect the Bahamas Wed night through Fri afternoon as well as a Gale Warning for the eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends west-southwestward down to 26N76W from a 1007 mb low at 31N61W. Winds ahead of the front are SW fresh to strong breeze with seas 6-8 ft. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of the front. Farther east, a complex area of low pressure near 37N24W extends a cold front from 31N18W to 25N20W where it transitions to a warm front. That front then reaches westward to a 1008 mb low at 25N29W. The front continues westward as a cold front to 26N45W, where it transitions to a stationary front reaching to 31N47W. Just south of the low, winds are SW fresh to strong with seas 8-9 ft. Near the Canary Islands, north of 28N east of 20W, the winds are SW to S strong to near gale with seas 8-11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N-27N between 20W-25W. The Bermuda High is shifted well south of its normal position, located this morning at 20N55W with 1018 mb pressure. Unless noted above, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak cold front north of the Bahamas will drift SE through tonight and dissipate. Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward to 70W through late Wed, and then across the remaining waters through Fri. $$ CWL/SS