962 AXNT20 KNHC 060605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jun 06 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, for CUBA, THE BAHAMAS, JAMAICA, AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS: Moist southerly middle level wind flow, and enhanced rising air motion may lead to the potential for strong convective precipitation from Wed afternoon through Fri night. The enhanced rising air motion is due to a strong upper level jet stream that is positioned just to the NW of the areas that are in question. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially in mountainous areas in eastern and central Cuba. Please, read the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONES: in the eastern part of IRVING, and in MADEIRA: The METEO-FRANCE forecast consists of developing gale-force winds in the marine zones: in the eastern part of IRVING from 06/1500 UTC until 07/0000 UTC, and in MADEIRA from 06/0900 UTC until 06/1500 UTC. Please, visit the following website, https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/ bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20230605201132458566, for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 14N southward, moving westward about 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 520 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Some of the precipitation also is close to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 60W, from 14N southward, moving westward about 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 650 nm to the east of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave, inland in parts of Colombia and Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N20W, and to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W, to 02N37W and 01N49W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N to 06N between 16W and 19W, and from 05N to 09N between 20W and 29W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The surface pressure gradient is flat and comparatively weak. A 500 mb level trough covers parts of the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitaiton: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate is in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the coastal waters of the Florida Panhandle, and off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the remainder of the area. The wind speeds are gentle to moderate. High pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 500 mb level trough covers parts of the Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitaiton: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in the NW Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate is in parts of the SE Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet from 70W eastward. An exception is in the coastal waters of Venezuela, for 2 feet, along 70W. The sea heights are reaching 3 feet in the central sections of the Caribbean Sea that are between 70W and 80W. The sea heights are reaching 2 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Lower surface pressure near and to the of the Bahamas is contributing toward only light to gentle winds in the central and W Caribbean from 75W westward. An exception is for moderate to fresh trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras. A comparatively lower latitude Atlantic Ocean surface ridge that is along 22N is contributing toward moderate to fresh SE trades in the E Caribbean Sea. Weak high pressure across the central Atlantic will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses in the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure will build through early Fri, increasing winds and seas in the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. Active weather is expected across N central portions Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N64W, to a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 29N68W. The front continues to a second 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 29N74W. The cold front continues to 25N79W near the NW Bahamas. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the north and northwest of the line that runs from 30N50W, to the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. The 24-hour rainfall total in inches, for the period that ended at 06/0000 UTC, is: 1.42 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. NE fresh to strong winds, and sea heights ranging from 8 feet to 12 feet, are to the north of the front. Fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are to the southeast of the front. A cold front curves through 31N23W, to 26N34W, to 31N50W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N northward from 50W eastward. Strong westerly winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 10 feet, are from 24N to the front. Strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 8 feet to 12 feet, are to the east of 35W from 25N northward. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 20N53W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is within 450 nm to the east of the high pressure center, and within 600 nm to the west of the high pressure center. A surface ridge runs along 20N. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet, are to the north of the ridge. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are elsewhere to the south of the ridge. A weak cold front will sink southward through the NW Bahamas and into southern Florida this evening before stalling tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and large NE swell will prevail N of the front through this evening before winds gradually diminish tonight. Central Atlantic high pressure will build westward to 70W through late Wed, and then across the remaining waters through Fri. $$ mt/al