000 AXNT20 KNHC 050605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 05 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 30W, from 14N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 660 nm on either side of the tropical wave. Some of the precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, from 14N southward, moving west from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 500 nm to the west of the tropical wave, and within 300 nm to the east of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 64W/65W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between 60W and the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W, to 07N28W and 07N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 16N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NE coast of Florida near 29N81W, to south central Georgia. A stationary front continues from south central Georgia, in the U.S.A. coastal plains/the coastal waters, to the middle Texas Gulf coast. Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from the surface trough northward from the Florida Big Bend eastward. The 1006 mb remnant low pressure center of Arlene is just to the west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. A surface trough curves through the 1006 mb low pressure center, from 26N75W in the Atlantic Ocean to 27N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 85W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from the surface trough northward from the Florida Big Bend eastward. Moderate winds are on the southern side of the surface trough, between the low pressure center and 85W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Mostly moderate and some fresh winds are from 23N southward between the Yucatan Channel and 93W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet. An earlier ship report was showing 8 feet in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the middle of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet from Jamaica southward, between Jamaica and NW Cuba. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet from Jamaica northward between Jamaica and NW Cuba. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet in the remainder of the area that is from NW Cuba westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are in the regional waters of western Cuba, associated with the remnant low of Arlene. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is in Honduras, in broad surface low pressure. Light and variable winds are in the remainder of the NW Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle southerly winds are in the central Caribbean Sea. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward into the eastern Caribbean Sea, bringing with it gentle to moderate SE winds. A weak pressure pattern across the region will maintain gentle to moderate winds across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic through Tue, with occasional fresh pulses across the SE Caribbean and along the coast of Venezuela. High pressure will build north of the area, increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean from the middle to end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N73W, beyond the coast of Florida near 29N81W. The sea heights that are from the cold front northward are from 10 feet and higher. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet within 150 nm to the south of the cold front. The sea heights are 3 feet or less elsewhere from 70W westward. A 1005 mb low pressure center is near 31N25W. A surface trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure center that is near 28N37W, through 28N50W, to a 1004 mb low pressure center that is near 35N60W. Another surface trough continues from the 1004 mb low pressure center, to 30N70W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and scattered moderate to strong, are from 24N northward between 14W and 34W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the surface trough northward between 40W and 46W. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is within 210 nm of the 1008 mb low pressure center and the surface trough between 36W and 45W. Moderate winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 19N northward between the 1008 mb low pressure center and 50W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 20N northward between the 1005 mb low pressure center and the 1008 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong W and SW winds are from 23N northward between 50W and 63W. Moderate SE winds are between 63W and 74W. Moderate and fresh winds are from 17N southward between 42W and 60W. The 1006 mb remnant low pressure center of Arlene is just to the west of Andros Island in the Bahamas. A surface trough curves through the 1006 mb low pressure center, from 26N75W to 27N85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 70W and the western coast of Florida, including inland in Florida. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 19N28W. Light and gentle anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N to 23N between 20W and 46W. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 24N southward from 60W eastward. An exception is for sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 15N southward from the 51W tropical wave eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the area that is from 30W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 14N northward between 30W and 40W, and they range from 3 feet to 6 feet from 20N northward between 40W and 70W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 70W. Isolated moderate is from 70W westward. Fresh to strong SW winds will impact the zones mainly north of 25N and east of 60W tonight. Atlantic high pressure extends from the central Atlantic westward along 20N and then WNW to the central Bahamas, and will shift NW to near 23N58W by Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell are expected over the waters off northeast Florida through Mon as a weakening cold front sinks S into the region. High pressure will move into the NW waters Tue night and slide E through Thu. $$ mt/al