000 AXNT20 KNHC 040556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 04 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... CARIBBEAN SEA HEAVY RAINFALL: A middle level to upper level trough, from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the NW Caribbean Sea, is helping to support the development of rainshowers in parts of Florida, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Hispaniola. The southwesterly flow that is on the eastern side of the trough has been pushing abundant amounts of moisture into the area of the precipitation. across this area. Six inches of rain were reported in parts of eastern Cuba on Saturday. Moisture is forecast to remain tonight and on Sunday, in Hispaniola, as the middle level to upper level trough moves eastward. More precipitation is possible. ONAMET, the Dominican Republic Weather Service, has issued alerts/advisories, for possible flooding of rivers, urban floods, and landslides. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from 12N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is between 10W and the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 12N southward, moving west from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W/58W, from 12N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W, to 07N30W and 07N54W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 13N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The remnant low pressure center of T.D. Arlene is a 1004 mb low pressure center that is near 23.5N84W. The sea heights are ranging from 6 feet to 7 feet, and the wind speeds are ranging from 20 knots to 25 knots, within 180 nm to the west of the remnant low of Arlene. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet elsewhere within 240 nm to the west of the 1004 mb low pressure center. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. One surface trough extends from the 1004 mb low pressure center toward the NW Bahamas near 27N79W. A second surface trough extends from the Gulf waters that are just to the west of Cape Coral in Florida to inland Florida just to the south of Jacksonville. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between Cuba and the 27N79W surface trough. A 1009 mb high pressure center is near 28N94W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower wind speeds cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. An upper level trough is in Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward from 90W westward, and inland in Texas. The remnant low of Arlene N of western Cuba will dissipate by early Sun. Fresh to strong winds west of the remnant low will diminish tonight. Fresh winds may pulse off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Sun night and Mon night. Elsewhere over the Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected through middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle level to upper level trough has been helping to generate convective precipitation near the Greater Antilles. Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for heavy rainfall in Hispaniola. It is possible that the remnant low of Arlene may contribute more convective precipitation in western Cuba tonight and early on Sunday, as the system moves eastward through the Straits of Florida. Fresh cyclonic wind flow, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are from 20N northward from 82W westward, in the NW corner of the area. Moderate to fresh SE wind flow is between Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, and from the Greater Antilles southward. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are from 70W eastward. Light to gentle southerly winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from the Cayman Islands to Cuba, and from 10N to 12N from 80W westward. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. Fresh winds will prevail tonight near the Yucatan Channel as the remnant low of Arlene moves close to the area. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic, with occasional fresh pulses along the coast of Venezuela starting Mon night. Winds and seas will increase slightly over the eastern and central Caribbean by mid week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves through 31N23W to 28N30W, 29N50W, to a 1002 mb low pressure center that is near 33N63W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward between 20W and 70W. Isolated moderate is from 70W westward. A surface ridge passes through 31N16W, to a 1017 mb high pressure center that is near 24N25W, to 18N40W, to 18N63W near the NE Caribbean Sea, to 18N73W near Haiti. Surface anticyclonic wind flow Moderate to fresh SW winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 25N northward between 49W and 65W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere from 60W westward. Mainly light to gentle winds are from 60W eastward. An exception is for gentle to moderate trade winds between the southern periphery of the Atlantic Ocean ridge and the ITCZ between 40W and 60W. A surface trough extends from low pressure east of Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through through Sun night, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. A cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by early Mon, before stalling from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Tue, and dissipating through mid week. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected behind the front over the waters off northeast Florida Sun and Mon. $$ mt/al