000 AXNT20 KNHC 021719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Depression Two, at 02/1500 UTC, is near near 26.7N 86.3W. This position is about 435 km/235 nm to the west of Fort Myers in Florida, and it is about 550 km/297 nm to the NNW of the western tip of Cuba. The tropical depression is moving southward, or 175 degrees, 4 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. The sea heights that are close to the tropical depression are ranging from 6 feet to a maximum of 10 feet. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Isolated moderate is from 25N to 27N between 80W and 84W, including in parts of south Florida. Broad surface low pressure extends from the area of the tropical depression, through the Yucatan Channel, into the NW part of the Caribbean Sea. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml,for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W/33W from 13N southward, moving W from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm to the west of the tropical wave 04N to 09N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 530 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 04N to 10N. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to strong is within 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 05N to 09N, and within 440 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 05N to 13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W/66W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving W 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N southward between 60W and 63W, covering the nearby eastern Caribbean Sea islands, from Guadeloupe southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea along 10N, 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W, 06N33W 06N40W 05N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 10N from 21W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 15N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about Tropical Depression Two. Moderate to locally fresh winds are from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere from 90W westward. Light to gentle winds are in the SE Gulf. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 90W westward, and they range from 1 foot to 2 feet, elsewhere from 90W eastward, away from the Tropical Depression TWO. Some smoke and haze, and possible reductions to visibility, are in the southern parts of the Gulf of Mexico, from the NE Yucatan Peninsula southwestward, due to ongoing agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in northern Central America. Tropical Depression Two is near 26.7N 86.3W 1002 mb at 11 AM EDT moving S at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. T.D. Two will move to 25.6N 86.2W this evening, 24.2N 85.8W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 84.9W Sat evening, before dissipating Sun morning. Over the western Gulf, gentle to moderate winds are expected into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mostly fresh SE winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate SE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 5 feet from 73W eastward, and they range from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. An upper level trough, and a surface trough, are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier air in subsidence accompanies the upper level trough. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong in clusters, is covering the areas that are from 11N to Cuba between between 70W and 82W. This area encompasses Hispaniola, the SE half of Cuba, Jamaica, and the surrounding waters. Isolated moderate is from 12N southward from 78W westward. The monsoon trough extends from La Peninsula de la Guajira of northern Colombia, to 13N80W, through the central sections of Nicaragua, into the Pacific Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.59 in Montego Bay in Jamaica, 0.30 in Trinidad, 0.07 in Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Kingston in Jamaica, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds over the central part of the basin will diminish early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is passing through 31N30W 27N43W, beyond 31N62W. The front connects eventually to a 1005 mb low pressure center that is near 31N67W. A surface trough extends from the 1005 mb low pressure center, to the NW Bahamas, and to 25N80W off the coast of SE Florida. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N northward from 20W westward. Fresh to strong cyclonic wind flow is within 210 nm of the 1005 mb low pressure center. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 23N to 25N between 66W and 68W. Large-scale moderate anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere from 20N northward from 60W westward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 20N northward from 60W westward. Large-scale gentle anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 60W eastward. A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 22N35W. Fresh northerly winds are from 15N to 20N from 23W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 13N between 40W and 50W. Moderate NE winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet, elsewhere, from 60W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, are: 1.09 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. A surface trough extends from the northern Bahamas northeastward to 1007 mb low pressure southwest of Bermuda near 30N68W. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts ENE through early next week, impacting zones mainly north of 25N and east of 65W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and building seas are expected over the waters off northeast Florida late this weekend through early Mon. $$ MT/ec