000 AXNT20 KNHC 011800 RRA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1755 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A low pressure system of 1007 mb (AL91) is located near 28N86W, or 130 nm SW of Apalachicola, Florida. Recent satellite wind data, along with buoy and ship observations indicate the area of low pressure over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has a broad but well-defined circulation with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the low is also showing signs of organization. Wave heights are 5-9 ft north of 27N and west of 90W, with the highest seas occurring in the NE quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions remain marginally favorable for additional development, and if these trends continue, a short- lived tropical depression or storm is likely to form as soon as this afternoon. The system is likely to meander over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight but begin a slow southward motion on Friday. By this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system continues moving southward, likely remaining offshore over the Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this afternoon. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is high. Please refer to the National Hurricane Center website, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 13N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No deep convection is noted near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 11N and between 44W and 52W. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean Sea. It has its axis along 61W, south of 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are present near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 06N46W and then from 07N49W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of 11N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 08N and between 30W and 44W and also from 06N to 13N and between 53W and 59W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details on AL91 in the NE Gulf of Mexico. Aside from AL91, the rest of the Gulf of Mexico is under a dry airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and mainly slight seas prevail. For the forecast, elsewhere from AL91, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend and into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... A complex weather pattern over the western Caribbean due to the disturbance in the Gulf, surface trough in the Bahamas and divergence aloft results in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from Central America to eastern Cuba and western Hispaniola, especially between 70W and 85W. The remainder of the basin is devoid of deep convection. The weak pressure regime that dominates the basin allows for moderate easterly winds in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. In the rest of the Caribbean, light to locally moderate SE-S winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Stronger winds are likely near the deep convection in the area. The upper level pattern is forecast to change little over the next few days, thus heavy rainfall is possible across the eastern Cuba, Jamaica, western Hispaniola and SE Bahamas. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night, then generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are expected behind the trough. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a low pressure system off Cape Hatteras, entering the western Atlantic near 31N72W and continuing southwestward to SE Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen ahead of the surface trough, mainly west of 63W. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds are occurring west of 63W. Stronger winds are likely near the deep convection. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N34W to 27N43W, then becomes a stationary front to 31N62W. Another cold front is draped across the Canary Islands in the eastern Atlantic. Neither boundary is producing deep convection. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad, weak subtropical ridge positioned near 22N41W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to occasionally fresh easterly winds south of 19N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in the region described are 4-6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Miami, FL northeastward to 31N72W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough tonight to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N69W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of Bermuda on Fri. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected N of 27N and W of 74W Sun through Mon in the wake of a cold front. This cold front should reach from near 31N63W to the central Bahamas by late Mon night. $$ DELGADO