000 AXNT20 KNHC 011113 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 13N to 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection trails the wave axis from 02.5N to 06.5N, east of 19W to 06W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 48W from 15N to 04N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 240 nm W and 120 nm E of the wave axis from 06N to 10N. A tropical wave along 59W from 18N to 09N is approaching the Lesser Antilles, moving W at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 55W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W to 03N42W. In addition to convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed north of the ITCZ from 03N to 08N between 29W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1008 mb low pressure, designated AL91, centered near 27N86W, have become a little more concentrated overnight. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Fresh to strong E winds are also in this area. Recent data from altimeters and buoys indicate that seas have risen to 5 to 7 ft in the area now. Outside of the NE Gulf, winds are light to moderate, with seas 3 ft or less. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development of AL91 over the next day or so as the system meanders over the northeastern or eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds occurring in the northern semicircle should continue through this evening over the NE Gulf. However, by this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward toward western Cuba or the western Straits of Florida. The chance of tropical cyclone development is low. By the end of the weekend, it should open up into a trough. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and associated flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office, and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend and into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the NW Caribbean from 16N to 21N between 76.5W and 86W, to the east of an upper-level trough located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico. In the far SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between 75.5W and 82.5W. The remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean is free of significant precipitation areas. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds prevail over the eastern and central Caribbean, mainly east of 75W, where seas are 4-6 ft. Gentle to locally moderate SE winds prevail W of 75W with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night, then generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are expected behind the trough. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near Miami, FL northeastward to 31N74W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated strong convection spans across the Atlantic from the Greater Antilles to north of 31N, and between 67W and the east coast of Florida, including the Bahamas. This area of convection is supported by atmospheric instability on the east side of an upper-level trough located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico. GOES Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a large area of atmospheric moisture across the area. Moderate winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail across the area. Farther east, a cold front enters the area from 31N35.5W to 27.5N45W to 28N50W, then stationary to 31N60W. Scattered showers are noted near the front from 27N-31N between 40W-55W. Moderate to fresh WSW winds and 5-6 ft seas prevail to the SE of the front, N of 27N and W of 32W. An expansive surface ridge extends from 23N35W to 1020 high pressure near 23N40W to 1019 mb high pressure near 25N52W to 29N60W. Light to gentle and variable winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are within 300 nm either side of the ridge axis. A cold front enters the area from 31N14W to 26N20W. Moderate WNW winds and 5-7 ft seas are behind the front. In the tropics, moderate to fresh trades prevail from the ITCZ to 17N between 35W-60W, with 5-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the surface trough extending from near Miami, FL northeastward to 31N74W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough tonight to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N69W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are likely near and to the SE of the low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of Bermuda on Fri. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected N of 27N and W of 74W Sun through Mon in the wake of a cold front. This cold front should reach from near 31N63W to the central Bahamas by late Mon night. $$ Hagen