000 AXNT20 KNHC 010356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jun 1 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Deep layered low pressure covers the Gulf of Mexico and remains nearly stationary. The center of this cyclonic circulation is over the NE Gulf, where a 1008 mb surface low is analyzed near 27N86W. Bands of moderate convection cover most of the NE Gulf and also extend from the Straits of Florida across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. This feature has been designated "AL91", and currently has a low chance of possible tropical development. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. Additional information on the rainfall and associated flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office, and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W from 13N to 03N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 15N between 11W and 19W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 44W from 15N to 04N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N between 46W and 54W. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 69W from 18N to 09N. The analyzed wave position has remained nearly stationary as the 00 UTC sounding from Barbados did not reveal wave passage. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W to 06N26W. The ITCZ continues from 06N26W to 03N42W. In addition to convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed north of the ITCZ from 04N to 08N between 26W and 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the special features section above for details on the low pressure center that has formed across the NE Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center near 27N86W to 23N89W to 23N93W. Easterly winds are fresh in the NE Gulf with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NE Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a 1008 mb low is over the eastern Gulf near 27N86W. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the eastern or northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern Gulf through Fri. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be fresh to locally strong over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The system should move southeastward over South Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean during the weekend. In its wake, moderate to occasional fresh N winds are expected in the eastern Gulf through late Mon. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend and into early next week, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue over the NW Caribbean ahead of an upper-level trough located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Otherwise, the gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the eastern Caribbean. Winds are generally gentle to moderate from the E-SE elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 4-6 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night, then generally light Mon and Mon night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate W to NW winds are expected behind the trough. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Numerous weak with scattered moderate convection triggered by a surface trough extending from 31N74W to 26N79W and supported by atmospheric instability is observed across a large area of the western Atlantic from 22N to 31N between 65W and the coast of Florida. West of the trough winds are moderate from the E with 3- 5 ft seas. East of the trough winds are moderate from the S with 2-4 ft seas. In the central Atlantic a cold front extends from 31N38W to 28N51W where a stationary front continues to 31N60W. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate NW winds behind the cold front with moderate to fresh SW to W winds ahead of the front. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. In the eastern Atlantic, another cold front extends from 31N15W to 25N32W. Winds are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. A 1022 mb high pressure centered south of these boundaries near 23N43W dominates the rest of the basin. Winds are light to gentle with 2-5 ft seas near the high, increasing to moderate to fresh trade winds and 5- 7 ft seas south of 20N. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from Bimini, Bahamas northeastward to 31N74W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days, along and east of the trough. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N68W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it shifts E along a frontal boundary to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week will move E across South Florida and into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida and 55W this weekend. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected N of 27N and W of 74W Sun through Mon night in the wake of a cold front. This cold front should reach from near 31N63W to the central Bahamas by late Mon night. $$ Flynn