949 AXNT20 KNHC 311745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed May 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An active tropical wave is along 13W south of 14N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted ahead of the wave axis covering the waters from 05N-13N between 14W-22W. Another cluster of moderate to strong convection is inland behind the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 42 south of 14N moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N-08N between 40W-45W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W south of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted on either side of the wave axis from 06N-15N between 48W-58W. Recent scatterometer data suggest that the wave axis is farther W along 58W with fresh to strong E to SE winds behind the wave axis. This wave will be relocated on the 1800 UTC surface map. Moisture associated with this wave will spread across the Windward Islands by this evening or tonight. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along from 77N south of 16N into western Colombia, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough, particularly from from 09N-11N between 75W-78W. This convective activity is affecting parts of the coast of NW Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 12N16W then continues SW to near 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05N27W to 04.5N40W to 06N52W. Most of the convection is related to the tropical waves mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low has developed over the NE Gulf near 26N87W, with a trough extending from the low center to near 22N92W. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern half of the Gulf today into Fri. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be fresh over the NE Gulf beginning tonight. The low center is well defined on visible satellite imagery, with most of the convective active to the E of the low. A band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the associated trough. A mid to upper-level trough extends over the eastern Gulf with an upper- level low spinning near 28N88W supporting the low/trough at the surface. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development over the next day or two as the system meanders over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, by this weekend environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system drifts southeastward towards the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula through this weekend. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low change of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours, and also during the next 7 days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office and Excessive Rainfall Outlooks issued by the Weather Prediction Center. Over the western Gulf, light to gentle anticyclonic flow is observed, with light and variable winds over the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of a weak surface ridge. For the forecast, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. CARIBBEAN SEA... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over the NW Caribbean ahead of an upper-level trough located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Southwesterly flow ahead of the trough is helping to transport abundant tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific region across Central America into the NW Caribbean. Locally heavy rain has been reported over parts of Cuba, with a rainfall amount of near 3 inches (70 mm)in Havana in only three hours. This convective activity is also affecting the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. Abundant moisture will persist across this area on Thu maintaining the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh trades across the eastern and central Caribbean, with seas of 3-5 ft. In the NW Caribbean, an area of fresh to strong SE winds is seen in the lee of Cuba likely associated with the convective activity in this area. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds with seas in the 2-3 ft range prevail. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed E of Florida and extends from 31N72W across the NW Bahamas to near 25N80W. Multi-layer clouds with embedded showers and thunderstorms are related to the trough covering most of the waters N of 20N W of 70W, including the Bahamas. A diffluent pattern aloft, ahead of the upper-level trough located over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, is helping to induce this convective activity. Moderate winds are on either side of the trough, higher near thunderstorms. A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N44W and continues westward to near 29N52W where it becomes stationary to beyond 31N62W. Some shower activity is within about 90 nm N of the stationary front. Another cold front is over the eastern Atlantic and runs from 31N20W to 26N32W. A broken band of mainly low clouds with possible showers is related to the front. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a 1021 mb located near 24N43W. The associated ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Mainly moderate trades are noted per scatterometer data across the tropical Atlantic with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted along the ridge axis. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough located E of Florida will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it slides E along a cold front to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will move E across Florida and into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida and 60W this weekend. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a cold front. $$ GR