000 AXNT20 KNHC 310354 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed May 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W, from 11W southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 26W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W, from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. No significant convection is observed. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 49W from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. No significant convection is observed. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 55W from 11N southward. A few showers and thunderstorms are observed over South America. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 75W from 13N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is observed over South America from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 13N16W to 05N25W. The ITCZ continues from 05N25W to 06N35W and resumes from 06N38W to 05N47W. Numerous moderate with embedded strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 10N between 06W and 19W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Unstable conditions in the SE Gulf are supporting scattered moderate convection from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Straits. Outside of thunderstorms, winds are generally light to gentle, except for moderate easterlies stretching across the north central Gulf. Seas are generally 1-3 ft, except 3-5 ft in the north central Gulf. For the forecast, an upper level-trough is producing showers and thunderstorms over the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is expected to take shape Wed, and extend from near the Yucatan Peninsula north-northeastward to the Florida Big Bend by Wed night. Surface low pressure could form along this trough Wed or Thu and is expected to meander over the eastern Gulf through Fri. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development during this time. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected across most of the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Winds associated with this system are forecast to be fresh over the NE Gulf beginning Wed night. The system should move eastward over Florida and into the Atlantic Ocean by the weekend. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional fresh pulses along the W coast of Yucatan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection extends across the NW Caribbean, with thunderstorms noted in the Yucatan Channel and Windward Passage. Recent scatterometer and buoy data confirm winds are generally moderate from the SE across the majority of the basin with 3-5 ft seas in the eastern Caribbean and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds become southerly gentle to moderate over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends across the western Atlantic from 31N69W to 26N75W where a surface trough continues further to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 25N to 29N between 66W and 79W. Winds are gentle to moderate across the western Atlantic, with 3-5 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N48W to 29N54W to 31N59W. North of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the west. South of the front, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N24W to 27N33W to 28N38W. A warm front extends from 28N38W to 31N41W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh NW winds north of these boundaries and fresh SW winds south of the cold front. These features combined are supporting 6-8 ft seas north of 27N in the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ is producing moderate trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from near Havana, Cuba northeastward to near 30N70W will be the focal point for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form along this trough Thu night to the southwest of Bermuda, when the trough is forecast to extend from 30N67W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds may cover a large area with this low as it slides E along a cold front to the S of Bermuda on Fri. At the same time, another broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week will move E across Florida and into the western Atlantic over the weekend. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are likely between Florida and 60W this weekend. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a cold front. $$ Flynn