000 AXNT20 KNHC 302330 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed May 31 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean is analyzed along 21W, from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 35W, from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 48W, from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 61W/62W, from 11N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is analyzed along 74W, from 13N southward, moving west at 10 knots. Precipitation is described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 11N to 06N21W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W to 06N33W, then resumes from 04N36W to 04.5N47W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 06W and 17W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 17W and 27W, and from 06N to 13.5N between 41W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic flow dominates the Gulf of Mexico, with unstable conditions and rising motion generally E of 90W. At the surface, a weakening frontal trough extends through the Straits of Florida to near 25.5N86W, where a surface low appears to be attempting to develop. Moderate to locally fresh SE to E winds prevail across much of the Gulf N of the trough and the developing low, and spread westward to near 92W. Scattered moderate convection is seen between the W end of the trough and SE Louisiana, while scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 3 to 5 ft N of the trough and area of developing low between 86W and 92W. Light to gentle N to NW winds prevail elsewhere to the SW of this activity, where isolated moderate convection dots the waters. Seas across the SW Gulf are 2 ft or less. A surface trough or surface low pressure could form over the south-central or southeastern Gulf tonight or Wed and potentially linger over the eastern Gulf into Fri. Moderate winds are forecast in the area, but there is a chance that the trough or low could produce fresh to strong winds later this week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are also possible across the eastern half of the Gulf Wed into Fri. Elsewhere, over the western Gulf, high pressure should lead to gentle to moderate winds into the weekend, with occasional pulses of fresh NE winds along the W coast of Yucatan. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The upper low across the Gulf of Mexico is shifting slowly eastward, which is promoting a broad upper ridge across the Caribbean Basin. Active convection extends southward from the trough across the Straits of Florida and over the Greater Antilles and the Yucatan Channel, to near 18N. Elsewhere, convection is occurring over adjacent land areas. At the surface, moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail across the Caribbean E of 76W, with strongest winds across the A-B-C Islands. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in this area. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are elsewhere across the basin, except light and variable N of Panama to 12N. Seas are 3 ft or less in these areas. A weak pressure pattern will maintain gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean and the tropical N Atlantic through the end of week, with occasional fresh pulses along the N coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Winds will become gentle to moderate from the south over the central part of the basin Fri through Sun night ahead of a trough that is expected to move into the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N, from 54W, to a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 33N72W. A weak cold front extends from the 1010 mb low pressure center to the Bahamas near 25N76W, then continues SW as a frontal trough through the Straits of Florida. Upper level winds are generally W-SW across this area W of 60W, and are sustaining scattered moderate to strong convection from along the frontal boundaries northeastward to 31N63W. Gentle N to NE winds are found west of the front, with seas around 3 ft, while moderate SE to S winds prevail east of the front to 60W, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Farther east, a cold front passes through 31N26W to 28N38W. Widely scattered light to moderate convection is seen within 90 nm E of the front and N of 30N. Moderate W-SW winds prevail on both sides of the front, to the N of 28N, and become fresh within 90 nm behind the front to the N of 30N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Elsewhere, a weak ridge extends to the S of this front from a 1020 mb high near 27N20W to another 1020 mb high near 24N38W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure near the ITCZ to the south is producing moderate to very localized fresh trade winds across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are only 4 to 6 ft. W of 50W winds become ESE to SE. A weak pressure pattern will result in quiescent conditions W of 55W through late Thu. A broad area of low pressure will move from the Gulf of Mexico across Florida and into the western Atlantic late Fri into Sat. As a result, increasing winds and building seas are likely over the waters east and south of the Bahamas late Sat into Sun night. Expect increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the western Atlantic by Thu as an upper trough moves into the region. Low pressure will slide eastward along a cold front over the north-central and northeast forecast waters from Thu night through late Sat. Strong N to NE winds and building seas are expected offshore northeast Florida Sun and Sun night behind a new cold front. $$ Stripling