000 AXNT20 KNHC 281008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun May 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 24W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. No significant convection is present near this feature at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 38W from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 32W and 45W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis near 52W from 12N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to 10N between 50W and 54W. A SE Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis near 64W from 14N southward into eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Venezuela coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 05N36W, then from 07N40W to 07N49W. Aside from the convection already described in the section above, scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ boundaries. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is over the NW Gulf along 92W and N of 25N. Another trough is analyzed from 26N87W to 23N85W. Weak ridging dominates the rest of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the Gulf through the first half of this week. Looking ahead, a weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades with 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the eastern and north-central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, relatively weak pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, with occasional pulses to 20 kt along the northern coast of South America and off Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N76W to 26N79W. Scattered showers are noted from the front to 68W. The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1024 mb high near 32N46W to the central Bahamas. In the central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1024 mb high pres near 32N46W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail with seas to 6 ft. Ridging also extends across the eastern Atlantic which is keeping quiescent conditions in that area. Winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the weak front will dissipate offshore from Florida today. Fresh westerly winds will continue through this morning off northeast Florida and diminish through the afternoon hours. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions tonight through Thu. $$ ERA