000 AXNT20 KNHC 272256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun May 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W from 12N southward, moving W at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this time. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W from 11N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 03N to 10N between 32W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 50W from 11N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 09N between 49W and 54W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W from 14N southward into Venezuela, moving W at 5-10 kt. Convection associated with this wave is occurring inland. MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from right off the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N13W to 05N21W, then W of a tropical wave from 05N23W to 05N34W, then W of another tropical wave near 03N37W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 12W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Several troughs extend across the eastern, central, and western Gulf. Isolated convection is noted in the central Gulf near the trough along 90W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the basin with seas 1-3 ft in the western Gulf and 2-4 ft in the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across the basin through early next week. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form over the western Gulf by mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is noted in the northern Caribbean offshore Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras in addition to offshore Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean with locally fresh winds off the NW Venezuela coast. Light to gentle winds are noted in the western Caribbean. Seas range 2-4 ft in the eastern basin and 1-2 ft in the western basin. For the forecast, relatively weak pressure north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the Caribbean through mid week, with occasionally pulse to 20 kt along the northern coast of South American and off Honduras. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deepening low pressure is off the Georgia coast with a cold front extending off the Florida coast from 30N77W to the northern Bahamas near 27N78W. The tail- end of the front is stationary from 27N78W to 25N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the front, impacting the Bahamas, from 22N to 31N between 69W to 80W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring between 63W and 68W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are noted off the Florida coast due to the low pres north of the area with seas to near 12 ft. Seas ranging 8-11 ft extend as far south as West Palm Beach, FL. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail with seas 4-7 ft. In the central Atlantic, ridging extends across the area anchored by a 1025 mb high pres near 33N44W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail with seas to 6 ft. Ridging also extends across the eastern Atlantic which is keeping quiescent conditions in that area. Winds are light to gentle and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, low pressure is centered off Georgia with a stalling front extending southwestward from the low to off the Upper Florida Keys. The low pressure will move well north of the area by this evening, and the front will dissipate through Sun. Strong westerly winds will continue through this afternoon off northeast Florida and diminish through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions late Sun through Wed. $$ AReinhart