000 AXNT20 KNHC 261734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri May 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 29N80W off the coast of Port Canaveral, FL. This low is expected to continue strengthening and meander along the northeast Florida coast for the next couple of days. The low will lift north of 31N Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low will bring gale-force winds offshore northeast Florida this afternoon through Saturday morning. Seas will build 15 to 19 ft near the strongest winds during this time. Additionally, fresh to strong winds and 10 to 13 ft seas will spread towards Cape Canaveral today through Saturday afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 18W from 12N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 15W and 22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 30W from 11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this feature at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 45W from 10N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis N of 07N. A tropical wave extends its axis along 59W from 13N southward into Guyana, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 13N between 51W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is currently inland Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W. The ITCZ extends westward from 10N19W to 04N29W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 03N31W to 00N45W, and then resumes W of another tropical wave near 00N46W to 00N49W. Outside of the convection near tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted S of the ITCZ from 05S to 00N between 34W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1008 mb low is noted in South Florida with a cold front that extends from that low along the Florida Keys to the eastern Gulf of Mexico near 25N88W. A trough stretches from the end of the cold front to 27N95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near SW Florida and the Florida Keys. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the northern Gulf with the latest ASCAT pass depicting light to gentle winds across the rest of the Gulf. Gusty winds are expected near the thunderstorms in the extreme SE Gulf. Seas range 1 to 3 ft, with 4 ft in the central Gulf. For the forecast, building high pressure behind a cold front extending from the Florida Keys westward to the central Gulf will produce fresh NE winds in NE Gulf today through Sat morning. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting only gentle to moderate winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward across Hispaniola. Converging southerly winds near the monsoon trough are triggering isolated thunderstorms along the coast of Colombia. Due to strong upper-level divergence, isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas to 4 ft are noted in the eastern half of the basin. Light to gentle winds with seas to 2 ft are noted in the western half of the basin. For the forecast, a low pressure system north of the Bahamas is maintaining a weak pres gradient across the Caribbean and tropical N Atlantic today, forcing only light to moderate trades. Even after the low pressure moves north tomorrow, the Bermuda/Azores High will shift eastward, continuing to support tranquil conditions over the area for the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N78W to the 1007 mb low pressure off the coast of Cape Canaveral. A cold front extends south of the low pressure along the South Florida coast and over the Florida Keys. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are noted across the western Atlantic off the Florida coast and the northern Bahamas, N of 22N and W of 65W. Strong to gale force winds are noted off the NE Florida coast with seas to 12 ft. Outside of that area, light to gentle winds prevail across the western Atlantic with 5-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, high pressure extends across the area with isolated thunderstorms occurring north of the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail, with locally fresh winds farther west. Seas range 4-6 ft. High pressure extends across the eastern Atlantic with light to gentle winds and seas to 4 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail across the W Atlantic mainly west of 73W. The low pres is forecast to deepen and drift over the W Atlc tonight before moving north to near 31N79W by Sat morning, then north of the area by Sat evening. Fresh to strong N to NE winds this morning across the NE Florida offshore waters will increase to NW to N gales this afternoon and continue through Sat morning. Winds and seas should diminish Sat afternoon through Sun morning. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun through Tue. $$ AReinhart