018 AXNT20 KNHC 260614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri May 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb frontal low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift north-northeastward into the western Atlantic for the next couple of days, then move north of 31N by Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high over the northeastern U.S. and the low itself will support fresh to strong N-NW to N-NE winds and 11 to 14 ft seas in large NE swell over the northeast Florida offshore waters beginning early Fri morning, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri afternoon through late Sat afternoon. These winds will reach gale-force offshore northeast Florida late Fri morning through Sat morning. Seas will build higher and peak at 15 to 19 ft during the strongest winds. Winds and seas will diminish Sat night into Sun as the low weakens and moves north of the area. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and Offshore Waters Forecast at website https://www.nch.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php both issued by National Hurricane Center for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W from 12N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 08N between 24W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 09N between 36W and 43W. A third tropical wave is near 56W from 12N southward into Suriname, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection present from 06N to 12N between 50W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches southwestward from inland Senegal across the coast near the Senegal-Gambia border to 11N18W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up south of the trough from 03N to 08N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 18W. An ITCZ extends westward from 07N18W to 07N24W, then from 01N26W to beyond the Equator at 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the first ITCZ segment from 06N to 08N between 18W and 24W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A modest cold front curves westward from a 1007 mb low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida across the east-central Gulf to just south of New Orleans, Louisiana. A surface trough runs southward from the low across the Florida Straits to western Cuba. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 80 nm north of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present across the Florida Straits. Moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft exist behind the cold front across the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail N of 27N and E of 90W through Sat, then gradually subside Sat night through Sun. A weak surface ridge will dominate elsewhere in the Gulf for the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western end of the Atlantic Ridge extends west-southwestward across Hispaniola to just east of Nicaragua. Convergent southerly winds near the ridge axis are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Aided by strong upper-level divergence, scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over eastern Cuba and nearby Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted for the eastern and north-central basin. NE to E gentle winds with 2 to 4 ft seas dominate the south-central and southwestern basin. Light to gentle WSW to W winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western basin through Fri, supporting light to gentle winds. The Atlantic Ridge will support moderate E to SE trade winds through the weekend over the eastern Caribbean, diminishing slightly early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends south-southwestward from off the Georgia-South Carolina coast across 31N78W to a 1007 mb low near Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Isolated thunderstorms are seen near the front north of 27N between 78W and the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast. Farther southeast and east, convergent southerly winds are coupling with strong divergent winds aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 64W and the Bahamas, and north of 25N between 66W and 75W. At the eastern Atlantic, an upper-level low near 32N29W is generating scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 26W and 32W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen off the northeast Florida coast north of 29N between 80W and the Georgia-northern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident from 20N to 29N between 68W and 80W/Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh ESE to S winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found north of 20N between 60W and 68W/80W, and from 09N to 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present from 05N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 50W, and from north of 20N between 35W and 60W. Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas dominate near the Canary Islands north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and tstms prevail across the western Atlantic, mainly west of 65W. The low pres is forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc through Fri, then move north to near 31N79W by Sat afternoon before moving north of 31N by Sat night. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE swell will prevail across the northeast Florida offshore waters tonight, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri through Sat. N to NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida Fri through Sat morning. A surface ridge will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and Mon. $$ Forecaster Chan