000 AXNT20 KNHC 260004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri May 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1007 mb low just inland southwest Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north of the area by Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE swell over the NE Florida offshore waters beginning this evening, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri through Sat before the low lifts north of the area. N to NE gale-force winds are expected offshore northern Florida Fri through Sat morning. Seas will build to a peak of 15 ft by Fri afternoon and to around 19 ft Fri night as these winds counter the Gulf Stream. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 01N to 13N. It is drifting westward. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 04N to 07N between 22W-27W. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere from 01N to 08N between 20W-28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W south of 13N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is inland over the northern sections of Suriname and French Guiana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ is interrupted by tropical waves and continues in segments from 08N16W to 06N23W, from 05N26W to 03N35W and from 03N42W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01N50W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low is just inland the southwest Florida coast near 26N81W. A forming cold front extends west from the low to 25N85W and northwestward to just south of southeastern Louisiana. A broad upper-level trough is situated over the eastern Gulf as seen in water vapor imagery. Plenty of instability is in play over this part of the Gulf leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf north of the cold front, while isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of the cold front. Gentle to moderate northeast winds are north of the cold front along with seas of 3-5 ft. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by light to gentle winds and relatively low seas of 1-2 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail north N of 27N and E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern is evident across most of the basin. This supports light to gentle trade winds along with seas 3 ft or less. Slightly higher seas of 3-4 ft are north of 15N between 64W-76W, and from 11N to 15N between 64W-76W. Seas of 3-5 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and just inland the coast of Colombia between 71W-75W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are just offshore the coast of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Isolated showers are possible over the remainder of the western Caribbean and over the eastern part of the sea. For the forecast, elongated troughing north of the Caribbean will help to maintain the present weak pres gradient and associated winds through Fri. The Azores High will support moderate east-southeast trade winds through the weekend over the eastern Caribbean, diminishing slightly early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the developing gale-force low in the western Atlantic. A 1007 mb low pressure is centered just inland southwest Florida near 26N81W. A stationary front extends from the low northeastward to 29N79W and to beyond the area at 31N78W. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft east of the Gulf of Mexico upper-level trough providing support and ventilation for scattered showers and thunderstorms between a line from 31N67W to 25N69W to 21N76W and Florida. Similar activity is along and just inland most of the island of Cuba. As high pressure builds north of the area, winds are beginning to increase along the NE Florida coast with buoys now reporting a fresh NE breeze and 5-7 ft seas. Near the surface trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. East of 67W, winds increase to a fresh S-SE breeze with 5-7 ft seas. Subtropical high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin between 35W-55W. The related gradient is allowing for moderate trade winds along with seas of 4-6 ft. East of 35W, trade winds are light to gentle north of 20N and moderate to fresh south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft over the eastern Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed along a position from 30N40W to 22N32W. No convection is occurring with this trough, however, an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is present to its northeast from 26N to north of the area near 33N and between 27W-33W. This activity is due to an upper-level low seen on water vapor imagery to be near 33N30W. The low is dropping south. For the forecast W of 55W, the 1007 mb low pressure that is inland southwest Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic, then lift north to near 31N79W by Sat afternoon before moving north of the area by Sat night. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support the development of fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE swell over the NE Florida offshore waters beginning this evening, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri through Sat before the low moves north of the area. N to NE gale-force winds are expected offshore northern Florida Fri through Sat morning. High pressure ridging will lead to relatively quiet conditions Sun through Mon. $$ Aguirre