000 AXNT20 KNHC 251602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu May 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: The 1007 mb low pressure system near SW coast of Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic through Sat. The system will then move north through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat. NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida beginning on Fri afternoon and will continue through the night. Seas will build to near 15 ft Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has extends along 23W, from 12N to 01N. This wave is nearly staionary. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 01N to 09N between 09W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W, from 12N to 01N, moving west at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed at this time. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W, from 12N to 01N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N between 50W and 54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Guinea near 09N13W to 08N16W. The ITCZ is interuppted by tropical waves and continues in segments from 08N16W to 06N21W, from 05N24W to 02N34W, and from 01N39W to the coast of NE Brazil near 01N50W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure is centered over the SW coast of Florida near 25N81W. A surface trough extends west from this feature to 26N93W. Isolated weak convection is observed from 24N to 30N between 81W and 92W. North of the trough, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 2-4 ft seas. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail N of 27N and E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland. Mariners should still exercise caution in the southern Bay of Campeche in case additional, and more northward plumes develop. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the NW Caribbean from 23N82W to 17N86W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 16N to 20N between 73W and 85W, including the Windward Passage. The subtropical ridge extends into the NE Caribbean, supporting moderate E-SE winds in the eastern Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas. Moderate winds are also noted near the Windward Passage and south of Cuba. Winds are gentle elsewhere with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western Caribbean today, supporting light to gentle winds. The Azores High will support moderate E-SE trade winds through the weekend over the E Caribbean, diminishing slightly into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the developing gale force low in the western Atlantic. A 1007 mb low pressure is centered near SW Florida. A surface trough extends from the low near 25N81W to 31N77W. Abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms between 64W and Florida and north of the Greater Antilles. As high pressure builds north of the area, winds are beginning to increase along the NE Florida coast with buoys now reporting a fresh NE breeze and 5-7 ft seas. Near the surface trough, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. East of 67W, winds increase to a fresh S-SE breeze with 5-7 ft seas. Subtropical high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin. Between 55W and 35W, winds are moderate from the E with 4-6 ft seas. East of 35W, winds are light to gentle north of 20N and moderate to fresh south of 20N. Seas are 4-6 ft throughout the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, the 1007 mb low pres is forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat night. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will support the development of fresh to strong N to NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning this evening, spreading southward to near Cape Canaveral Fri through Sat before the low moves N of the area. N to NE gales are expected offshore northern Florida Fri through Fri night. High pressure ridging will lead to quiescent conditions Sun and Mon. $$ Flynn