000 AXNT20 KNHC 250522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu May 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The 1008 mb low pressure system near southern Florida is forecast to strengthen and drift over the western Atlantic. The system will then move north through Sat night. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat. NE gales are possible offshore northern Florida Fri night. Seas will build to near 14 ft Fri night. Winds and seas will diminish late Sat into Sun as the low moves north of the area. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south of 12N. It is moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 09N and east of 27W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W, south of 12N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are seen near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W, south of 12N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 06N32W, then from 06N35W to 07N48W and then from 06N50W to 07N59W. All significant convection is described in the tropical wave section above. GULF OF MEXICO... The stationary front that extended across the Gulf of Mexico has dissipated based on the 0300 UTC surface map. However, the combination of a low pressure near southern Florida, ample moisture and divergence aloft sustain isolated to scattered showers over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, especially north of a line from western Cuba to SW Louisiana. A weak high pressure regime dominates the rest of the Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found north of 26N and east of 90W. Similar N-NE winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas in the regions described are 2-3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas prevail. Haze is seen over most of the central and western Gulf sections due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and in Central America. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail E of 90W through Sat morning. Otherwise, weak high pressure will generally dominate the basin through the next several days, supporting gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas will build to moderate through Sat. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W remains in a state of unrest and continues to erupt and produce volcanic ash, however the current ash plume is confined inland and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mariners should still exercise caution in the southern Bay of Campeche in case additional, and more northward plumes develop. If mariners encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris, you are encouraged to report the observation to the National Weather Service by calling 305-229-4424. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Windward Passage and off northern Colombia, mainly dry conditions prevail across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge extends weakly into the basin, supporting moderate easterly winds in the eastern Caribbean and primarily light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and 1-2 ft elsewhere. Haze is present over the northwestern Caribbean due to agricultural fires in Central America. For the forecast, elongated troughing N of the basin will help to maintain a weak pres gradient across the central and western Caribbean through Thu, supporting light to gentle winds. A pre- frontal trough will move into the NW Caribbean by Thu night, where it will stall and linger through the end of the week, leading to a slight increase in winds and seas there. Over the E Caribbean, the Azores High will support gentle to moderate E-SE trade winds through Sat, locally fresh offshore northern Venezuela, then will diminish slightly for the end of the weekend into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the developing gale force low in the western Atlantic. A 1008 mb low pressure near southern Florida, abundant tropical moisture and divergence aloft results in a large area of scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 63W and Florida and north of the Greater Antilles. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong winds associated with the strongest storms. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 19N30W to 30N34W and a few showers are noted within 120 nm of the trough axis. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge positioned well north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found between mainly 35W and 67W. Wave heights in these waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, 1008 mb low pres is centered near 26N79W, with trough extending SW to the Florida Straits. An elongated trough extends from 31N69W to the SE Bahamas, with a stationary front from 31N74W to near Melbourne, Florida. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas, with scattered showers and tstms will prevail E of the low/troughs tonight. The low pres is forecast to strengthen and drift over the W Atlc then move N through Sat night. The pres gradient between high pres over the eastern U.S. and the low will support fresh to strong NE winds and large NE swell across the NE Florida offshore waters beginning Thu night, spreading southward to near Daytona Beach Fri through Sat before the low moves N of the area. NE gales are possible offshore northern Florida Fri night. $$ DELGADO