000 AXNT20 KNHC 222252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue May 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in Panama, Colombia and Venezuela: A pronounced deep layered upper level trough extends from the W Atlantic along about 70W southward across Hispaniola to the coast of northern Colombia. The upper level trough continues to interact with the monsoon trough to trigger widespread deep convection across Panama, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela, and adjacent Caribbean waters. Excessive rainfall is possible through early Tue, then the threat is expected to diminish afterward. Please refer to the latest forecasts from your local meteorological agencies for more information. Gulf of Mexico Ashfall Advisory: The Popocatepetl Volcano continues to be in a state of unrest. Frequent moderate to large eruptions are noted in various satellite images, with ash plumes reaching as high as 30000 ft. Upper-level westerly winds are transporting the ash across the adjacent SW Gulf of Mexico south of 21N and west of 91W. The latest surface observations in the area show visibilities of 5-7 nm. Mariners who encounter volcanic ash or floating volcanic debris are encouraged to report this observation to the National Hurricane Center, by calling +1-305-229-4424. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 01N to 12N. It is moving west at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 22W-26W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 01N to 12N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland across Africa. One segment of the ITCZ is analyzed from 05N26W to 07N38W. A second segment of the ITCZ extends from 06N42W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 26W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-38W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-48W. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on an Ashfall Advisory for the SW Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low that is located over the Florida panhandle near Marianna southwestward to 28N87W and continues west-southwest to 28N91W and to 26N96W. Another surface trough extends from the low east-southeast across northern Florida. No significant weather is occurring with these features. Seas are 3 ft or less throughout and winds are light to gentle, N to NE in direction, except for light and variable winds west of about 91W. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate. This pattern will result in light to gentle winds and slight seas through most of the forecast period. A modest cold front will move S through the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wed, bringing moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds E of 95W through Fri morning. Popocatepetl Volcano in Mexico near 19N99W continue to erupt. Ash has moved E-NE away from the volcano and over the Bay of Campeche, S of 22N and W of 91W. Visibility may be restricted in this area due to volcanic ashfall through this afternoon. Mariners should exercise caution. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about heavy rainfall expected in parts of Colombia, Panama, and Venezuela through early Tue. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Lesser Antilles and surrounding waters from 10N to 18N between 55W and 65W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is south of Puerto Rico from 16N to 18N between 65W and 70W. Both areas of convection are enhanced by favorable divergent upper- level flow. Light to gentle trades prevail across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas in the eastern and central basin, and 1-3 ft seas in the western basin. Winds and seas may be locally higher in the areas of convection. For the forecast, elongated low pressure in the SW North Atlantic waters along 72W and developing low pressure over Florida by mid-week will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the central and western Caribbean through Sat, thus supporting light to gentle winds in these regions. Over the eastern Caribbean, the southwest extension of the Azores High ridge along with lower pressure over northern South America will support gentle to moderate trade winds through the forecast period. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters east of 70W through Tue evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 mb low pressure feature is analyzed near 25N72W. This position is along a trough axis that extends from 30N70W to the low and to near 22N73W. The latest available ASCAT pass highlighted fresh northerly winds within 180 nm of the low in the W and NW quadrants. Gentle to moderate winds, in cyclonic fashion, are noted elsewhere within 360 nm of the low and trough. Seas over the waters from 22N to 27N and east of the Bahamas to 65W are 6-9 ft due to and E swell. An altimeter pass noted these seas. Scattered moderate convection is east of the low and trough from 20N to 31N between 62W and 71W. Other scattered moderate convection is seen moving offshore north and central Florida and reaching to near 80W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by high pressure. The associated gradient supports trade winds of moderate to locally fresh speeds along with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, elongated low pressure across the SW North Atlantic along 72W that is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms and fresh to strong SE winds between 60W and 70W will move slowly NNE through Tue morning when it will interact with a weak cold front approaching from the NW. Afterward, the low will continue to move NNE and exit the region Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong SE winds, rough seas and showers and thunderstorms will prevail E of the low through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over central Florida by mid- week, move off the peninsula Wed night and move across the far NW waters through late Fri. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States and the low will support fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas across the NE Florida offshore waters through Sat. $$ Aguirre