000 AXNT20 KNHC 210519 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun May 21 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall in W Colombia and E Panama: A deepening upper level Caribbean Sea trough is interacting with broad low pressure in Colombia and Panama, and with the monsoon trough. The monsoon trough passes through 08N/09N between 74W in Colombia and beyond southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered strong covers the areas that are from 07N to 12N between Lake Maracaibo in NW Venezuela and 81W. This precipitation is covering the coastal waters and the inland areas that are between Costa Rica and Venezuela. These conditions will continue during the weekend. Expect the potential for heavy rainfall in the same areas through early Monday, then it will shift eastward, to the rest of Colombia and to Venezuela, from Monday through early Tuesday. Please, refer to the latest forecasts from your local or national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W from 13N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 06N between 29W and 32W, and from 01N to 03N between 29W and 31W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 13W/14W, from 14N southward, moving westward 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward between 10W and 20W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near 10N15W, to 05N22W. The ITCZ continues from 05N22W, to 04N29W 03N36W 04N47W. Precipitation: disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 29N86W, off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. The surface pressure gradient is flat and weak. A cold front passes through SW Louisiana, to the Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 90W westward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet in the SW corner of the area. The sea heights are reaching 1 foot elsewhere. Fresh NE winds are within 200 nm of the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate NE winds are elsewhere from 26N southward from 90W westward. Gentle to moderate wind speeds cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Weak high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico through early next week, inducing light to gentle winds and slight seas. A diurnal trough will move offshore each night W of the Yucatan Peninsula, with moderate N to NE winds ahead of it. A weak frontal trough will sink into the northern Gulf Mon, and gradually produce gentle to moderate N to NE winds across the entire basin by Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about heavy rainfall for Colombia and Panama, during the next few days. A surface trough is from 27N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, crossing the western sections of Haiti, to 17N73W just to the south of Haiti. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N northward between 64W and 77W. SE-to-E mostly fresh to some moderate winds are from Hispaniola eastward. NE mostly moderate to some fresh winds are elsewhere from 17N southward. Moderate and fresh northerly winds are within 75 nm of the coast of Cuba from 80W to NW Cuba. Gentle winds cover the rest of the NW corner of the area. The sea heights are ranging from 3 feet to 5 feet in the coastal waters of Venezuela, and from 1 foot to 2 feet from Nicaragua northward into the NW corner of the area. Expect the sea heights to range from 4 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. An exception is for a maximum of 6 feet between 66W and 67W about 210 nm to the north of Venezuela. A very modest pressure gradient across the basin will lead to gradually diminishing tradewinds and slight to moderate seas over the Caribbean E of 80W into the middle of next week, as an inverted surface trough develops N of the area along 72W tonight and slowly lifts northward. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact waters near the coasts of South America and Panama as well as Caribbean waters E of 68W through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is from 27N72W in the Atlantic Ocean, crossing the western sections of Haiti, to 17N73W just to the south of Haiti. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 420 nm to the east of the surface trough, from the Greater Antilles to 30N. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet from 05N northward from 60W eastward. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 05N southward from 60W eastward. One slight exception is for the range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 18N to 29N between 37W and 50W. A second exception is for the seas to range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 23N to 28N from 20W eastward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet from 60W westward. Mostly fresh to some moderate NE-to-E winds are from 60W eastward. Fresh to moderate SE and E winds, and some strong winds, are within 420 nm to the east of the 27N72W 17N73W surface trough from 27N southward. Moderate winds are elsewhere from 60W westward. The Atlantic high pressure ridge is centered on the Azores high along 34W and extends SW to near 60W. An inverted trough is developing along 72W tonight and will become better defined through Wed as it drifts N-NE. Scattered showers and thunderstorms and freshening S to SE winds are expected near and E of the trough axis through Wed night. Another trough may move off the SE US coast and impact far NW waters late next week. $$ mt